📊 March 21, 2025 – Post-FOMC Focus on US Data & BOE Decision
This week’s major events, the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting and the US FOMC, have passed, and the market is now seeking its next direction.
USD/JPY tested 150 but pulled back to the 148 range, while EUR/USD remains firm near 1.09, signaling a temporary pause in dollar selling.
The next focus shifts to the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision and US economic data, which could trigger a USD rebound.
📈 Key Market Events Today
📌 1. BOE Interest Rate Decision (March 21)
- Market expects the BOE to hold rates at 4.50%
- Last MPC vote was 7-2 in favor of holding, but dovish bias is increasing
- Market focus:
- If the statement signals stronger easing bias, GBP could weaken short-term
- Spring Budget (March 26) may include fiscal stimulus, affecting BOE stance
📌 2. US Economic Data (March 21)
- Q4 Current Account Balance: Expected -$330B deficit (wider than previous)
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (March): Expected 9.0 (down from 18.1)
- Initial Jobless Claims (March 9-15): Expected 224K (vs. 220K prior)
- Leading Index (February): Expected -0.2% (vs. -0.3% prior)
- Existing Home Sales (February): Expected 3.95M (vs. 4.08M prior)
✅ Key Focus for the Market:
- Will US economic data confirm a slowdown?
- If weaker than expected → USD selling could continue
- If stronger than expected → Short-term USD rebound possible
📌 3. EUR/USD – Momentum Slowing Near 1.09
- Germany’s fiscal reform approval supports EUR
- However, Ukraine crisis intensifies, driving risk-off sentiment
- Dollar selling momentum easing post-FOMC, keeping EUR/USD capped
📌 4. Central Bank Rate Decisions from Switzerland, Sweden & South Africa
- Swiss National Bank (SNB): Expected to cut by 25bps
- Riksbank (Sweden) & SARB (South Africa): Expected to hold rates
- If SARB is hawkish, short-term ZAR rally possible
📌 5. Major US Corporate Earnings Releases
- Nike, FedEx, Accenture, Lennar report today
- If earnings surprise positively, risk-on flows could temporarily lift USD
📉 Major Currency Pair Outlook
📉 USD/JPY
📌 Direction: Watching for post-FOMC USD rebound
- Tested 150 but pulled back; next move depends on US data
- Stronger-than-expected US data could push USD/JPY higher
📉 Expected Range: 148.00 – 150.50
📉 EUR/USD
📌 Direction: 1.09 remains key level, USD-driven movement expected
- Germany’s fiscal reforms support EUR
- Ukraine uncertainty is a risk-off factor
- If USD buying resumes, EUR/USD may drop below 1.09
📉 Expected Range: 1.0850 – 1.0950
📉 GBP/JPY
📌 Direction: BOE meeting & USD trends in focus
- If BOE turns more dovish, GBP could weaken short-term
- Spring Budget fiscal policies could also impact GBP direction
📉 Expected Range: 189.00 – 193.50
📈 Trading Strategy for Today
✅ Monitor GBP reaction after BOE rate decision!
✅ Watch US economic data release for potential USD recovery!
✅ Sell EUR/USD on rallies near 1.0950 if resistance holds!
✅ Observe GOLD for post-FOMC pullback; consider buying dips!
📉 With FOMC behind us, USD direction now hinges on economic data. Timing entries carefully is key! 📊
