📊 March 14, 2025 – Dollar Selling Pauses, Focus on U.S. Retail Sales Tonight!
The recent wave of dollar selling due to weak U.S. economic data appears to be slowing down.
The market is navigating through uncertainties surrounding Trump’s tariff policies, the Ukraine situation, and Germany’s fiscal policy, seeking its next direction.
Tonight’s U.S. February Retail Sales and NY Fed Manufacturing Index could set the short-term trend for the dollar.
📉 U.S. Dollar Outlook – Temporary Adjustment or Trend Reversal?
📌 Key Market Themes:
✅ Concerns Over U.S. Economic Slowdown:
- Weak U.S. data has fueled dollar selling in recent weeks.
- However, stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and NY Fed Manufacturing data could trigger a short-term dollar rebound.
✅ Trump’s Tariff Policies:
- The U.S.-EU tariff dispute continues, with the U.S. hinting at additional tariffs on German and Japanese automakers.
- Escalating trade tensions could lead to risk aversion, boosting yen demand.
✅ Ukraine Peace Talks:
- With continued increases in European defense spending, the focus remains on Ukraine’s peace negotiations.
- Potential additional fiscal support from the EU could impact euro movement.
✅ BOJ Policy Outlook:
- According to reports from Nikkei and Sankei, the BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged in this week’s meeting.
- However, speculation about a June rate hike remains strong, making it essential to monitor yen market reactions.
📈 Key Economic Data Releases Tonight
⏰U.S. February Retail Sales
- Market Expectations: +0.6% MoM (Previous: -0.9%)
- Core Retail Sales: +0.3% (Previous: -0.4%)
- Stronger-than-expected: Potential dollar buying (particularly if it reduces Fed rate cut expectations).
- Weaker-than-expected: Dollar selling could resume (raising concerns about an economic slowdown).
⏰ NY Fed Manufacturing Index (March)
- Market Expectations: -2.0 (Previous: +5.7)
- Worse-than-expected: Increased dollar selling pressure.
- Better-than-expected: Signs of U.S. economic resilience could support the dollar.
📉 USD/JPY Outlook
📌 Market Direction: Tracking U.S. economic data, key support at 148.00
- Buy orders are concentrated around 148.00.
- A weak retail sales figure could push USD/JPY towards 147.50.
- A break above 149.00 could trigger short covering, accelerating gains.
📉 Expected Range: 147.50 – 149.50
📈 EUR/USD Outlook
📌 Market Direction: U.S. data and German fiscal policy in focus
- Germany’s fiscal expansion expectations continue to support the euro.
- Stronger U.S. retail sales could trigger temporary euro selling.
- Deterioration in Ukraine’s situation may lead to risk-off sentiment, boosting the dollar and pressuring the euro lower.
📉 Expected Range: 1.0850 – 1.0950
📉 GBP/JPY Outlook
📌 Market Direction: Influenced by USD trends and BOE policy outlook
- Next week’s BOE MPC meeting could trigger position adjustments.
- Weak U.S. retail sales could lead to risk-off sentiment, strengthening the yen and pushing GBP/JPY lower.
📉 Expected Range: 189.50 – 192.50
📈 Trading Strategy for Today
✅ Monitor dollar reaction post-retail sales release.
✅ Short USD/JPY below 148.00 (Stop loss at 149.00).
✅ Look for short-term buying opportunities in gold (if U.S. slowdown concerns increase).
📉 Key focus today: Watch USD reaction before making trade entries! 📊
