📌 February 14 – Gold’s Surging Rally! Will US Retail Sales Determine the Dollar’s Trend?

📌 February 14 – Gold’s Surging Rally! Will US Retail Sales Determine the Dollar’s Trend?

✅ Key Market Developments Today

📌 Trump Tariffs: Shift Toward “Reciprocal Tariffs”

• No immediate implementation → Negotiation period extended until April.
• Markets remain calm with no excessive panic; price movements are stable.

📌 Progress in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks

• Led by President Trump, negotiations continue with multiple nations.
• The Munich Security Conference (Feb 16) will be a major focal point.
• Potential for European backlash against the US acting unilaterally.

📌 Gold’s Astonishing Rally!

• Uncertainty in global markets drives safe-haven demand for gold.
• Missed trading opportunities lead to frustration 💦
• Gold’s movement remains a key focus for further opportunities.

📌 Today’s Key Economic Event – US Retail Sales (22:30 GMT)
🔎 Market Expectations:

• Headline Retail Sales: -0.2% (Previous: +0.4%)
• Ex-Auto Retail Sales: +0.3% (Previous: +0.4%)

📢 Key Takeaways:
✅ Better-than-expected data → Confirms US economic strength → Dollar bullish
✅ Weaker-than-expected data → Highlights weak consumer spending → Dollar bearish

📢 Other Indicators to Watch:

• US Import & Export Price Index (January)
• US Industrial Production (January)
• Business Inventories (December)

📌 Trading Strategy Moving Forward

🎯 1. Gold (XAU/USD)

📈 Trend: Continued Uptrend – Proceed with Caution
🔎 Strategy:

• Missed the rally, but looking for dip-buying opportunities.
• Monitor political risks and interest rate trends carefully.

🎯 2. USD/JPY

📉 Trend: Dollar’s Direction Hinges on Retail Sales Data
🔎 Strategy:

• Watch the US Retail Sales data for Dollar confirmation.
• Despite PPI strength, the Dollar remains resilient, potential for a rebound.

🎯 3. EUR/USD

📈 Trend: Continuation of Dollar Weakness?
🔎 Strategy:

• Euro demand persists due to Ukraine ceasefire optimism.
• A strong US retail sales report could shift momentum back to Dollar strength.

🎯 4. EUR/JPY

📈 Trend: Uptrend Continuing
🔎 Strategy:

• Risk-on sentiment from Ukraine ceasefire talks keeps Euro in demand.
• Watch price action around the 155.50–156.00 zone for short-term opportunities.

📌 Upcoming Key Events

📅 February 14 (Friday) – US Retail Sales (22:30 GMT) → Main event of the day!

📅 February 14 (Friday) – Munich Security Conference → Potential impact on Ukraine ceasefire progress.

📢 Other Notable Events:

• Speeches from Banca d’Italia Governor Panetta and Dallas Fed’s Logan.
• Earnings reports: Applied Materials, Coinbase, Airbnb.

📢 Conclusion:

Markets are gradually absorbing the impact of Trump tariffs while keeping a close eye on political risks.
The US Retail Sales report will be a key driver for the Dollar’s direction – making today a crucial trading session.
Exercise caution and react to market flows wisely! 🔥