Bitcoin Likely to Maintain Upward Trend, with Low Risk of Large Sell-Off
Concerns about a large-scale sale of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road have been circulating in some quarters. However, for the reasons outlined below, the likelihood of such an event occurring is very low:
1. Completion of Tasks Before the End of the Administration
The Biden administration’s term officially ends on January 20, 2025 (January 21 in Japan). However, practical policy execution typically concludes by the preceding Friday, January 17. Decisions with significant market impact, such as a large-scale Bitcoin sell-off, are highly unlikely to be made in the final days of the administration. Moreover, such sales require a high degree of transparency and advance notice. As of now, no such announcements have been made.
2. Consideration for Market Stability
A large-scale government sale of Bitcoin would significantly increase volatility in the cryptocurrency market. To minimize market disruptions, governments generally opt for phased or carefully planned sales. It is highly unrealistic to expect the Biden administration to destabilize the market with a sudden sell-off in its final days.
3. Transition to the Next Administration
If a plan to sell the seized Bitcoin is not executed within the Biden administration, the responsibility will shift to the incoming administration. Given the need to establish new policies and priorities during the transition period, it is unlikely that Bitcoin sales will be an immediate focus.
4. Historical Precedent
In past cases where Bitcoin was sold by the government, sales were conducted gradually, with consideration for market stability. It is reasonable to assume that a similar approach would be taken under current market conditions, significantly reducing the risk of a sudden, large-scale sell-off.
Conclusion
Based on the above, the possibility of a large-scale Bitcoin sell-off by the Biden administration in its final days is exceedingly low. Given the government’s emphasis on market impact and transparency, the feared rapid price decline is unlikely to materialize.
Personal Strategy
As it’s the weekend and my trading results are positive, I plan to avoid taking additional risks. I will focus solely on my existing Gold (XAU/USD) buy position for now. Starting next week, I will revisit Bitcoin trading opportunities.
