U.S. Market Closure: Cautious Sentiment Ahead of Jobs Report
Today, the U.S. stock market is closed in observance of a memorial day for former President Carter, with the bond market operating under shortened hours. The overall market is expected to remain calm ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. employment report, though comments from Federal Reserve officials may have a short-term impact on the markets.
Key Points for Today
Fed Officials’ Remarks
Several Federal Reserve members are scheduled to speak today. Their comments may provide clues on rate cuts and the policy direction for 2025:
- Harker (Philadelphia Fed): Focus on future rate cut perspectives.
- Collins (Boston Fed): Insights into the U.S. economic outlook.
- Barkin (Richmond Fed): Discussion on regional economies and policy projections.
- Schmidt (Kansas City Fed): Speech on overall monetary policy.
- Bowman (Fed Governor): Speech themed on “Monetary Policy and Economic Performance.”
European and London Market Data
Key economic data releases are scheduled during the European trading session. The risk-off sentiment may impact the euro and pound:
- Germany Industrial Production Index (November)
- Eurozone Retail Sales (November)
- UK DMP Inflation Expectations (December)
- South Africa Manufacturing Output (November)
Other Notable Factors
- Weakness in Chinese Economic Data: This could amplify risk-off sentiment.
- Brazil Retail Sales and Mexico CPI (U.S. Time): Watch for impacts on emerging market currencies.
Current Market Trends
- USD/JPY: Trading around the 157 level, showing slight upward resistance.
- Cross Yen Pairs: Generally soft amid risk-off sentiment.
- Bitcoin: Yesterday’s small buy position was stopped out. Today, careful timing is required for re-entry.
Strategies and Outlook
USD/JPY
- Adjustments are underway ahead of the jobs report, limiting large movements.
- 156.80 serves as a key support level.
Bitcoin
- After yesterday’s stop-out, caution is needed when entering trades in a low-liquidity environment.
- Monitor reactions around $98,000 if the uptrend resumes.
Overall Stance
- Wait-and-see is the preferred strategy for today.
- Focus on low-risk short-term trades ahead of the U.S. jobs report.
This week’s lack of significant events suggests a gradual market movement. However, unexpected developments from Fed officials’ comments could lead to surprises. Stay vigilant, assess market reactions carefully, and prepare for next week’s major events.
