US Thanksgiving Holiday, Focus Shifts to European Data
US Market Closed, Focus on European Economic Indicators and Events
Today, the US market is closed for Thanksgiving, and major markets will be closed. Attention continues on news related to President-elect Donald Trump, while European economic indicators and events become the focus of the market.
Key Economic Indicators for Today
European Related:
- Eurozone Money Supply M3 (October)
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (Final) (November)
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index (November)
- Germany Consumer Price Index (Preliminary) (November):
- Forecast: +2.3% YoY (Previous: +2.0%)
- EU Standard: +2.6% YoY (Previous: +2.4%)
- Expected release at 10:00 PM JST. Pre-release confirmation of a possible upside in the consumer price index across Germany’s states around 6:00 PM.
- South Africa Producer Price Index (PPI) (October)
- Canada Current Account (Q3 2024)
Speeches:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe: Speaking at the CEDA Annual Conference.
- ECB Related:
- François Villeroy de Galhau (Governor of Banque de France)
- Klaas Knot (Governor of Dutch National Bank)
- Philip Lane (ECB Chief Economist)
Market Background and Trends
USD/JPY:
- Movement: This week, the US dollar is weaker, and USD/JPY is on a downward trend.
- Background: While the USD continues to weaken, trading volume is expected to be low due to the Thanksgiving holiday, which could slow down the downward momentum. Friday will have reduced hours for Black Friday, making the market even quieter.
- Strategy: Maintain a buy bias and cautiously target pullbacks in the 152 yen range.
EUR/USD:
- Key Point: If the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprises to the upside, it could support the euro. However, ECB rate cut expectations remain a weight on the euro.
- Strategy: Depending on the outcome of the German CPI, consider a short-term long position. However, if the 1.0500 level proves resistant, consider a short bias.
AUD/USD:
- Focus on the RBA Governor’s speech. If the Australian dollar strengthens, consider short-term selling during the upward move.
- Strategy: Look for short-term selling opportunities during rallies.
CAD:
- The current account results are the main focus, but with reduced liquidity due to Thanksgiving, large price moves are unlikely. It is recommended to wait and watch.
Key Points:
- German CPI results and ECB-related speeches.
- Prepare for movements after the market reopens following Thanksgiving.
Summary: Today, the US market closure will likely result in quiet trading, but European-related developments could trigger short-term price movements. Maintain a buy bias for USD/JPY while being cautious with timing. Continue with a flexible strategy, keeping an eye on the German CPI and ECB statements.
