U.S. Treasury Secretary Nomination: Market Reaction Trump’s nomination of Ms. Besant as the next U.S. Treasury Secretary has supported the U.S. equity market. As a hedge fund founder, her background signals a focus on stabilizing financial policies, which had a positive impact on market sentiment.
Market Key Points:
- Adjustment Mode of Trump Trade: The market remains highly sensitive to new developments surrounding the U.S. and geopolitical tensions. The “buy on dips” strategy for both cryptocurrencies and USD/JPY is prominent.
- Thanksgiving Week: The U.S. market is expected to experience low trading volumes, making it challenging to establish a clear market direction.
Key Economic Indicators: Although today’s overseas market indicators hold lower significance, the following data is set to be released:
- Hong Kong Trade Balance (October)
- Brazil Consumer Price Index (IPCA, November)
- U.S. Housing Price Index (September, Q3)
- S&P Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index (20 cities, September)
- New Home Sales (October)
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
The New Home Sales figure is likely to generate short-term market reactions.
Key Event: FOMC Meeting Minutes Release
- FOMC Minutes Highlights: The minutes from the November 6-7 meeting are expected to show a stance of caution regarding rate cuts amid strong U.S. economic performance.
- Market Expectations:
- Rate Cut Probability for December: 56% (CME FedWatch)
- Rate Hold Probability: 44%
- Additionally, a U.S. Treasury bond auction (5-year bond $70 billion, 2-year floating-rate bond $28 billion) is scheduled, which could impact interest rate trends.
European & London Market Focus: ECB officials are scheduled to speak, including:
- Villeroy de Galhau, French Central Bank Governor
- Centeno, Portuguese Central Bank Governor
- Lane, Finnish Central Bank Governor
Though these speeches may not provide new material, they could influence market sentiment and should be monitored.
Strategy: Navigating Adjustments in Trump Trade
- USD/JPY: A “buy on dips” strategy remains effective. Focus on the support around the 154 yen range and look for entry points.
- Cryptocurrencies: If risk appetite returns, actively consider buying on dips in cryptocurrencies.
- EUR/USD: With ECB rate cut expectations limiting upside, consider selling during any rebound.
- GBP/USD: Continued weakness in UK economic data suggests that selling GBP remains a viable strategy.
Summary: The market continues to be influenced by U.S. developments such as the “Trump tariffs” and the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary, which create volatility and adjustment moods. Today, focus on risk-off movements while considering buy positions on dips in USD/JPY and cryptocurrencies, and maintaining a selling stance for EUR and GBP. Flexibility and caution are required as the market adjusts.
