Strong Dollar Trend Continues, Focus on EUR Selling: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims in Focus
Market Conditions:
The strong dollar trend continues, but the momentum has slowed in the past week, with the market showing signs of stagnation. The key theme of “Trump trade” remains unchanged, but with the upcoming Trump administration next year, the market is entering a period of instability.
Geopolitical Risk Impact: Focus on EUR Selling
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has entered a new phase, intensifying the risk-off sentiment. Particularly, the EUR (Euro), which is geographically close, has been reacting sensitively. Therefore, today’s strategy will focus on selling the Euro (EUR).
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Movements:
Expectations of a rate hike in December are moving the JPY. BoJ Governor Ueda has not taken a clear stance, but his comment that “many data will be released before the December meeting” has strengthened market expectations for a rate hike. As a result, the yen is moving in a sensitive manner, and we expect increased volatility in the yen ahead of the next BoJ meeting on December 19.
Key Economic Indicators and Events Today
Key Economic Data:
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (11/10 – 11/16)
Market expectation: 220K (previous: 217K)
This is an important indicator of the strength of the labor market and could have a significant impact on the dollar.
Other Key Indicators:
- UK Public Sector Net Debt (October)
- Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (CPI) (October)
- Turkey Central Bank Policy Rate (November)
- Canada Industrial Product Price Index (October)
- U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
- U.S. Leading Economic Index (October)
- U.S. Existing Home Sales (October)
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary) (November)
- South Africa Central Bank Policy Rate (November)
Speech Events: A number of central bank officials from Europe will be speaking today.
- ECB-related: Knot, Holzmann, Cipollone, Lane, Elderson
- BoE-related: Mann (Member of the Bank of England)
- FRB-related: Vice Chairman Barr, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed President Mester
Also, the earnings report from the major retailer Gap is scheduled, which could influence consumer sentiment in the U.S.
Strategy: Focus on EUR Selling and Risk-Off Sentiment
- EUR Selling Strategy:
Given the geopolitical risks, we are focused on selling the EUR, particularly targeting EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. - Building Positions Based on the Strength of the Dollar:
If U.S. initial jobless claims align with market expectations, the dollar’s upward momentum could strengthen again, so we are considering dollar-buying positions. - Gold (XAU/USD) to Watch in Risk-Off Environment:
As geopolitical risks increase, we will continue to monitor gold for buying opportunities.
Key Points to Watch Today:
- U.S. initial jobless claims data could dictate the movement of the dollar.
- EUR selling could intensify in response to rising geopolitical risks.
- The impact of statements from central bank officials from both Europe and the U.S. on the market.
We will continue to adopt a flexible trading approach in line with the strong dollar trend and risk-off sentiment.
