Political Uncertainty in Japan and the U.S. Influences Markets; Focus on U.S. JOLTS Job Openings
Japanese Political Situation: Confusion Post-Election
In Japan, the recent House of Representatives election resulted in the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition losing its majority, with the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party making significant gains. Both camps will need to collaborate with other opposition parties to secure a majority, particularly the movements of the National Democratic Party are key. As the extraordinary Diet session on November 11 approaches, attention is on the remarks from Representative Tamaki, indicating a challenging situation for the Bank of Japan.
U.S. Political Situation: Adjustments Ahead of the Presidential Election
Conversely, in the U.S., with the presidential election on November 5 approaching, support for Trump and Harris is closely matched. Reports of Trump’s lead last week intensified the pressure for dollar buying, but as the election nears, adjustments in the market are more likely. The market is showing unstable movements, with attention on the election results.
Economic Indicators and Focus on JOLTS Job Openings
In today’s overseas markets, several economic indicators will be released, including Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Index (November), UK’s Consumer Credit Balance (September), and during NY hours, U.S. Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) (September), Housing Price Index (August), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August), JOLTS Job Openings (September), and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (October).
Among these, the JOLTS Job Openings will be closely watched as a leading indicator for Friday’s U.S. employment data. The market expectation is for approximately 7.98 to 8 million openings, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous 8.04 million. The results could significantly impact the movement of the U.S. dollar.
Market Strategy
Consider Buying Cryptocurrencies: Following reports of Trump’s lead, buying in cryptocurrencies is becoming more active. With this backdrop, continuing to expect an upward trend while determining entry points is a viable strategy.
Focus on JOLTS Job Openings: The JOLTS Job Openings data could influence the U.S. dollar’s direction. If the results fall below expectations, dollar selling is likely, while exceeding expectations could lead to dollar buying, requiring a swift response post-release.
Summary
With political circumstances and economic indicators intersecting, the market is expected to remain unstable. In particular, the outcomes of the U.S. presidential election, along with the political dynamics in Japan and U.S. economic indicators, could lead to significant shifts in market trends.
