GBP/USD: Strong Buy – Currency Focus and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 28, 2024
EUR/USD: Strong Buy
EUR/USD is stable around 1.0787, with discussions about further monetary easing from the ECB and the Federal Reserve (FRB). Traders estimate a 40% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut from the ECB in December. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election on November 5, pressure on the euro may increase. Eurozone Q3 GDP growth is forecasted to rise by 0.8% YoY and 0.2% QoQ, while inflation data on Thursday is expected to show a CPI increase to 1.9%. The U.S. will release October employment statistics on Friday, with a significant decrease in non-farm payrolls expected.
GBP/USD: Strong Buy
GBP/USD is experiencing a downward trend, testing 1.2945. Consumer credit data will be released tomorrow, with a decrease in September mortgage approvals anticipated. U.S. Q3 GDP data will be announced on Wednesday, and Friday will see October employment statistics. A sharp decline in non-farm payrolls is expected, with the election outcome potentially delaying rate cuts by the FRB. The UK manufacturing PMI has fallen to 50.3, and the services PMI has dropped to 51.8.
AUD/USD: Buy
AUD/USD continues to decline, testing 0.6585. Following a 50 basis point rate cut in September, Fed Chair Powell has tempered expectations for the upcoming meeting in November, while the possibility of Trump winning the election supports the USD. Australian inflation data, expected to show a CPI decrease of 2.9% YoY, could put further pressure on the AUD.
USD/JPY: Buy
USD/JPY is rising around 153.65, reaching its highest level since late July. October’s U.S. employment data is anticipated to show a decrease in non-farm payrolls, which may impact the pace of FRB rate cuts. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain rates at 0.25% during its meeting on October 31, with September retail sales and industrial production data released on Thursday potentially providing temporary support for the yen.
XAU/USD: Sell
Gold prices are stable around 2740.00, showing flat movement in the morning session on October 28. Traders await the results of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, with expectations that if Trump wins, the pace of FRB monetary easing will slow, strengthening the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of monetary easing from the ECB and the Bank of England are supporting gold prices. Additionally, decreased oil demand from China has pressured gold prices, with overall demand dropping by 22% from July to September.
