GBP/USD: Strong Buy – Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 25, 2024
EUR/USD: Buy
EUR/USD shows mixed movement, stabilizing around 1.0820. Technical factors support the euro, with traders anticipating an ECB rate cut. Meanwhile, expectations for further aggressive monetary easing by the Fed are shifting amid increasing chances of a Trump victory in the November 5 presidential election. ECB President Lagarde emphasized the need for caution in rate decisions, while Portugal’s Central Bank Governor Mario Centeno proposed a 50bp rate cut at the December 12 ECB meeting. Eurozone’s October manufacturing PMI rose to 45.9, exceeding expectations, while services PMI fell short at 51.2.
GBP/USD: Strong Buy
GBP/USD has dipped slightly, testing 1.2960 after the previous day’s rise. The UK’s October consumer confidence index fell to -21.0, and business activity remains sluggish. Manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.5 to 50.3, and services PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.8. U.S. durable goods orders are due, with a forecast of -1.1% for September. The U.S. October manufacturing PMI is forecast at 47.8 and services PMI at 55.3, indicating economic strength.
NZD/USD: Sell
NZD/USD is declining, testing a low of 0.5990 last seen on August 16. New Zealand’s October ANZ consumer confidence index fell to 91.2. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China cut rates by 25bp to 3.10%. The U.S. dollar is strengthening, driven by expectations of a Trump victory in the November presidential election. The U.S. October manufacturing PMI is forecast at 47.8 and services PMI at 55.3, with jobless claims down to 227,000.
USD/JPY: Strong Sell
USD/JPY continues to decline around 151.50, maintaining the bearish momentum from the previous day. October’s Tokyo CPI fell to 1.8%, while core CPI rose to 1.8%, slightly increasing the odds of BoJ tightening. U.S. October manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 and services PMI to 55.3, exceeding expectations. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki suggested potential intervention in response to sharp currency movements.
XAU/USD: Sell
XAU/USD is showing mild declines around 2727.00. Despite recovering from the previous day’s rise, pulling back from the all-time high near 2760.00, technical factors continue to exert pressure on gold prices. If Trump wins the November 5 election, it could lead to tighter trade policies and slower monetary easing. U.S. October manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 and services PMI to 55.3, while jobless claims decreased to 227,000, and new home sales exceeded expectations at 0.738 million units.
