U.S. and Canadian Markets Closed for Labor Day, Focus Shifts to European Events
On Monday, September 2, both the U.S. and Canadian markets will be closed for Labor Day, and no major U.S. economic data releases are scheduled. As a result, there will be little new information to drive the ongoing dollar strength from last week, and the market may either remain in a wait-and-see mode or undergo some corrective movements. The market’s focus is likely to shift to European and London session developments.
In the upcoming overseas markets, scheduled releases include Swiss retail sales (July), Swiss Manufacturing PMI (August), final Manufacturing PMI figures (August) for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as Turkey’s real GDP (Q2 2024). The delayed release of Germany’s retail sales (May) might also occur today, though this remains uncertain.
Particular attention will be on the final Manufacturing PMI figures from various European countries and the UK. However, unless there are significant revisions, the market reaction may be limited. Currently, the market expects the ECB to make larger rate cuts than the Bank of England by the end of the year, leading to a bias towards selling the euro against the pound in cross currency pairs. If the economic indicators for Europe and the UK show contrasting results, there could be a reaction in the EUR/GBP exchange rate.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, ECB policymakers are divided on the Eurozone’s economic growth outlook. Some members are concerned about a recession, while others are focusing on inflation control. While the market is forming a consensus around a rate cut in September, the outlook for October remains uncertain. ECB President Lagarde is expected to continue emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Market Trends and Strategy
The Swiss PMI has significantly improved, especially in the services sector, which has recovered to a level above 50, though market reactions have been muted so far. Additionally, there has been substantial selling in the cryptocurrency market. However, if the Fed cuts rates in September, there is a high likelihood of buying interest returning to cryptocurrencies, making it worth considering buying at lower levels.
