Yen Strengthening! BoJ’s Next Move and USD/JPY Outlook: FX Weekly Forecast for August 5, 2024～
From July 29 to August 3, trading resulted in a total profit of +141,981 USD.
Profitable Week with Cross Yen Selling
This week’s FX market saw continued profitability through selling cross yen pairs. Additionally, Bitcoin briefly surged past 70,000 USD on news related to former President Trump’s Bitcoin national reserve strategy but subsequently saw heavy selling.
Moreover, reports that Harris is leading and rising tensions in the Middle East have put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Concerns about a potential war between Israel and Iran have notably driven significant selling in cryptocurrencies. The impact of Middle Eastern tensions on the cryptocurrency market remains a critical point of observation going forward.
Key Points Moving Forward
BoJ’s Additional Rate Hike Expected This Year
- 70% predict an additional rate hike within the year, with 44% expecting it in December.
- Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments have significantly impacted the market, heightening expectations for an additional rate hike this year. According to a special Bloomberg survey, 68% of economists foresee a policy rate hike, with the majority (44%) predicting it will occur in December.
- With the BoJ’s rate hike, USD/JPY has plummeted to the 146 range. We will continue targeting selling opportunities in USD/JPY.
Powell’s Rate Cut Perspective
- A rate cut might become an option in the September FOMC meeting.
- Chairman Powell indicated a potential move towards a rate cut as early as September. The federal funds rate target range remains at 5.25–5.5%, but the likelihood of a rate cut is increasing, suggesting continued selling pressure on the USD.
Key Currency Points
USD: Neutral to Bearish
- USD/JPY is expected to remain under pressure due to divergent monetary policies between Japan and the U.S. With the BoJ’s rate hike and potential U.S. rate cuts, the outlook for the USD remains bearish.
JPY: Neutral to Bullish
- The BoJ’s rate hike decision and the governor’s hawkish remarks have strengthened the yen. There is a high likelihood of yen carry trades unwinding.
EUR: Neutral
- EUR/USD is expected to find support amid U.S. rate cut expectations. However, uncertainties about the U.S. economy and risk-off sentiment from BoJ’s policy shift may limit the euro’s upside.
AUD: Neutral to Bullish
- AUD is expected to experience a nervous market. Attention will be on the RBA’s monetary policy board meeting. Although many predict a hold on rate hikes, the key point is whether the hawkish stance is maintained in the statement.
NZD: Neutral to Bearish
- NZD is anticipated to show a weak trend. With the RBNZ’s monetary policy announcement looming, a cautious mood is likely to spread.
ZAR: Neutral to Bearish
- ZAR is expected to struggle mainly against the yen. With inflation settling down, SARB’s rate cuts are being priced in.
GBP: Neutral to Bearish
- GBP is expected to remain unstable. With no clear guidance from the BoE on rate policy, the market lacks a definitive direction.
CAD: Neutral to Bearish
- CAD is under pressure from increasing rate cut expectations. The likelihood of continued policy rate cuts from the BoC raises concerns about economic recession.
Next week, it will be essential to keep an eye on Japanese and U.S. monetary policies and major economic indicators to gauge market movements.
Conclusion
Hello everyone! Today, I want to talk about “Cortisol Face,” a trending topic on TikTok. Recently, many people have been discussing this new wellness trend, but what exactly is it?
What is “Cortisol Face”?
- “Cortisol Face” refers to a condition where your face becomes puffy or bloated due to increased cortisol levels from stress. TikTok creators claim that high stress levels cause these facial changes.
What is Cortisol?
- Cortisol is one of the hormones that increases in your body when you are stressed. While it helps the body deal with stress, too much cortisol can have various negative effects.
Experts’ Opinions
- Experts say that it’s unlikely stress directly causes facial swelling or bloating. These symptoms can be related to a rare condition called Cushing’s syndrome, where the body produces too much cortisol. However, typical stress alone rarely leads to significant facial changes.
How to Treat a Puffy Face If you feel your face is puffier than usual, consider these steps:
- Reduce Salt Intake: Lowering salt can prevent excessive water retention.
- Drink Plenty of Water: Helps flush out excess sodium and reduces bloating.
- Get Enough Sleep: Quality sleep improves overall appearance and reduces puffiness.
- Cold Compress: Applying a cold towel or ice can reduce swelling.
- Lymphatic Drainage Massage: Helps remove excess fluid from the body.
Summary
“Cortisol Face” is a term for puffy or bloated faces trending on TikTok, claimed to be caused by stress. However, experts note that typical stress alone is unlikely to cause noticeable changes in your face. If facial swelling is a concern, reducing salt intake, drinking water, and ensuring adequate sleep can help. If the problem persists, consulting a healthcare professional is advisable.
Now you understand “Cortisol Face” better. Stay healthy and enjoy your days! Have a great weekend.
