The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 31. Ahead of this, Fed officials will enter a “blackout period” starting this weekend, during which they will refrain from commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy. Therefore, market participants will closely watch their remarks this week for any hints on future policy direction.
Key Speeches Today
- Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed: Speaking about the U.S. economy (Q&A included).
- Esther George, President of the Kansas City Fed: Making remarks at a Kansas City Fed event.
- Christopher Waller, Fed Governor: Speaking on the economic outlook (Q&A included).
Markets are increasingly leaning towards a rate cut in September, and today’s speeches will be scrutinized to see if they support this view.
Other Key Events
- NY Afternoon: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be released.
- Republican National Convention: Ongoing until the 18th, with former President Trump urging against rate cuts. This could introduce a bullish bias for the dollar.
Economic Data Releases
- Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index (June)
- South Africa Retail Sales (May)
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index (07/06 – 07/12)
- U.S. Housing Starts (June)
- U.S. Industrial Production Index (June)
- Canada International Securities Transactions (May)
- U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Corporate Earnings Reports
- Today: Johnson & Johnson and Alcoa are among the companies reporting their earnings.
Developments in Japan
- Approximately 4 hours ago, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Japan’s Digital Minister Taro Kono, who is vying for the prime minister position, urged the Bank of Japan to raise policy rates to enhance the yen’s value and lower the costs of energy and food. This statement, initially reported in English, has prompted overseas investors to start buying yen.
Trading Strategy
I will continue to maintain a bearish outlook on the USD and a bullish outlook on the JPY.
