This week, US economic statistics are announced daily, centered on the US employment statistics over the weekend. On Monday, the ISM manufacturing business sentiment index was unexpectedly low. Yesterday, the JOLTS job openings number decreased significantly from the previous 835.5 thousand (revised down from 848.8 thousand) to 805.9 thousand. On Monday, the manufacturing PMI final value was revised upwards, but the market was showing a dollar depreciation movement.
The dollar index has been falling since the weekend, sinking to a dollar depreciation level for the first time in two months. At the moment, the decline has paused, but it continues to be capped on the upside.
Under such circumstances, today the US ADP employment statistics (May) and the US ISM non-manufacturing business sentiment index (May) will be announced. The market consensus forecast is that the ADP employment statistics will slow down from the previous increase of 192,000 to an increase of 175,000. The ISM non-manufacturing business sentiment index is expected to improve from the previous 49.4 to 51.0. At the forecast stage, opinions are divided on strength and weakness. It looks like a day to judge the current market conditions based on the market’s reaction to the results.
Other economic indicators to be announced from the NY morning include the US MBA mortgage application index (05/25 – 05/31), the US non-manufacturing PMI final value (May), and the Bank of Canada policy interest rate (June). The Bank of Canada has a market consensus of a 25bp rate cut. We want to judge the future strength and weakness at the press conference of Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers of the Bank of Canada.
Regarding speaking events, no notable plans have been made other than the above-mentioned Bank of Canada officials.
Today, we plan to follow the movement of the US dollar after ISM non-manufacturing business sentiment index.
