Last week, global stock markets showed enthusiasm, with major indices hitting record highs. This week, the sentiment persists, with no significant corrections observed, and trading remains in the high range. However, while the Nikkei reached a new intraday high, buying momentum seems strong, but the range is gradually becoming limited. US stock futures are trading slightly lower today after yesterday’s decline.
In the forex market, there’s a slight pressure on the yen, but USD/JPY hasn’t made a decisive move towards 151 yen. Today, the Japanese CPI data came in above expectations, which has capped the upside for USD/JPY. Nevertheless, trading around the 150 yen level persists, indicating resilience.
Since mid-February, the dollar has been under selling pressure, although the corrections have been within the range of the previous dollar strength seen at the end of last year. The dollar index has found support near the 200-day moving average, but there has been a lack of direction in recent days. If the sluggishness in the rebound continues, there is a possibility of a “death cross” between the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, which could further establish a downward trend in the dollar.
The focus will be on economic data from various countries, especially the US, and statements from major central bank officials. While inflation has shown signs of softening, persistent inflationary pressures in services and wages are still present. Surprisingly, there were moments when the dollar was bought following the latest US CPI data.
Central bankers are adopting a data-dependent stance and are in a phase of seeking turning points. While a rate cut is widely expected for the next action, the timing remains uncertain. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East are also being watched closely. With the US presidential election scheduled for November, there is a tendency to avoid changes in economic conditions around that time. Therefore, if there is no action to start cutting rates by around the summer, there is a risk of missing the opportunity.
Clear economic statistics and bold statements from officials are eagerly awaited.
Economic indicators to be announced in the foreign markets later today include US durable goods orders (preliminary) for January, US housing price index (December and Q4), and US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities) for December. Durable goods orders in the US are the main focus, with market consensus expecting a decline of 5.0% month-on-month from the previous unchanged figure. However, excluding transportation equipment, the month-on-month forecast growth is limited to +0.2% from the previous +0.5%.
Regarding speaking events, there are scheduled participations in events, meetings, and discussions by Elderson, ECB Executive Board member, Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, and Bahr, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve. There will also be a $42 billion US 7-year bond auction. The earnings announcement of major US companies, particularly eBay, is being watched.
With Japan’s CPI showing an increase, the upside for cross-yen pairs is limited. However, downside movement is also restricted. Continued range-bound trading is expected.
