Today, attention is focused on whether the USD/JPY exchange rate will maintain the 150 yen range as we head into the weekend. In the Tokyo market, the Nikkei average showed movements approaching its all-time high. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda reiterated comments similar to those from last week, stating that “even if negative interest rates are lifted, an accommodative monetary environment will continue for the time being,” reaffirming the maintenance of accommodative policies. There are many factors that could exert downward pressure on the yen exchange rate.
On the other hand, the USD exchange rate seems to have an advantage, albeit with fluctuations. The impact of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index, which exceeded expectations, was significant. However, the subsequent release of US retail sales unexpectedly weakened, leading to a decline in the dollar. Nevertheless, the dollar index has found support at the 10-day moving average, maintaining its upward trend. This situation also serves as supportive material for USD/JPY.
Economic indicators to be announced in the overseas markets later include the US Producer Price Index (PPI) (January), US Housing Starts (January), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary value) (February), Canadian Wholesale Sales (December), and Canadian International Securities Transactions (December). The US Producer Price Index is highly anticipated, with the market expecting a slowdown in year-on-year growth from +1.0% in the previous reading to +0.6%. Core year-on-year growth is also expected to slow from +1.8% in the previous reading to +1.6%.
Yesterday, the unexpected negative result of US retail sales led to significant USD selling. Currencies fluctuated greatly, and unfortunately, I incurred losses due to being tossed around by the market movements. I anticipate significant movements in the USD depending on the US PPI. Let’s keep an eye on the developments ahead.
