Today marks the final FOMC meeting of the year in the United States, and there is considerable anticipation surrounding the announcement of its results, along with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference. Regarding interest rates, it is widely expected that there will be no change this time, with the market’s consensus aligned with that expectation. The focus lies on potential shifts in market expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts next year, which have been subject to uncertainty, varying with the strength or weakness of U.S. economic data.
A key point of interest will be how FOMC members forecast interest rates for next year and whether there are any changes from their previous outlook. Additionally, during Chairman Powell’s press conference, it is likely that a hawkish tone will prevail, given that inflation has not yet reached the target level. However, as inflation has been gradually stabilizing, it will be important to observe how his statements align with market expectations regarding the timing of interest rate cuts or if he maintains a more hawkish stance focused on combating inflation. Recent discussions have indicated that interest rates are at levels that could restrain economic growth, leading to market speculation about the possibility of an end to rate hikes.
While many are searching for signals of an interest rate cut, it should be noted that if such expectations are denied, there is also a significant potential for USD strength to prevail.