Today, on November 1st, the minutes from the November 1st meeting of the US FOMC will be released. The policy interest rate was kept in line with market expectations at 5.25-5.50%. The statement had conveyed a sense of pausing interest rate hikes. However, during Chairman Powell’s press conference, he maintained a hawkish tone, suggesting that market expectations for rate cuts had gone too far. He had denied the notion that it would be difficult for the FOMC to raise rates again after stopping, stating that the FOMC had not discussed or considered rate cuts.
However, subsequent important indicators such as US employment statistics and the US Consumer Price Index did not show the expected strength, leading to the recent decline in the US dollar. The USD/JPY exchange rate has accelerated its decline this week, and the yen’s strength is also evident as cross-yen pairs have fallen.
Even after the release of today’s FOMC minutes, there is a possibility that downward pressure on the US dollar against the yen will continue. It will be important to carefully monitor the market’s reaction after the minutes are published.
In addition to the FOMC minutes, today’s international economic calendar includes the Canadian Consumer Price Index for October and the US Existing Home Sales for October.
The USD selling pressure continues to build. Currently, the strongest currencies are NZD and JPY. If the timing aligns, these may be targeted.