The conflict between Israel and Hamas is escalating, and the situation remains tense. In the midst of this, the U.S. president is planning to visit Israel tomorrow. Hopes are high that humanitarian measures will be strengthened without adding fuel to the fire of the intensifying confrontation, and the forex market is closely watching this development.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices. NY crude oil futures rose to the $88 per barrel range but have somewhat settled around the $86 per barrel range recently. Central banks around the world are concerned about the oil market as a new source of inflation.
Economic indicators to be released in the foreign markets later today include the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), U.S. Retail Sales (September), U.S. Industrial Production (September), U.S. Business Inventories (August), U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (October), Canadian Housing Starts (September), Canadian Consumer Price Index (September), and Canadian International Securities Transactions (August).
The highly anticipated U.S. Retail Sales market expectation for September is a slowdown in growth, with a month-on-month increase of +0.3%, compared to the previous +0.6%. Excluding automobiles, the month-on-month growth is expected to slow to +0.2% from the previous +0.6%. U.S. industrial production is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month’s +0.4%. The capacity utilization rate is expected to decline from 79.7% to 79.6%. At the forecast stage, this could be seen as a negative for the dollar, but the actual results will determine the market’s reaction.
First, keep an eye on the price movements following the release of September U.S. Retail Sales.
