The market expectations for the September data are as follows: an unemployment rate of 3.7% (previously 3.8%), non-farm payroll employment increased by 170,000 (previously 187,000), average hourly earnings increased by +4.3% YoY (previously +4.3%), and increased by +0.3% MoM (+0.2%) among others. The market is expected to react initially by comparing the results with these market expectations.
Furthermore, there’s something to talk about today. It has been reported that U.S. President Biden is scheduled to make a statement about the employment statistics at 11:30 AM local time (1:30 AM Japan time on the 7th). The White House has been informed of the results content on the evening before the release of U.S. employment statistics. It will be interesting to see what kind of statement President Biden will make once he knows the results.
If he emphasizes the achievements of his policies, it could be something that the American people would welcome. With the issue of wage increases spreading, an acceleration in wage growth is likely to be assumed. Additionally, simply the decrease in the unemployment rate and employment growth would also be seen as good news.
The market might strengthen the dollar in advance. The current U.S. bond yield is slightly rising, reaching the 4.73% range. However, it’s important to note that price movements based on speculation can often close before the announcement, making them prone to nervous fluctuations. It’s not wise to chase these moves too aggressively. The results will be released at 9:30 PM Japan time.
Other indicators include Canadian employment statistics for September. The market expectations are for an unemployment rate of 5.6% (previously 5.5%) and an increase in the number of employed persons by 20,000 (previously 39,900). Unlike the U.S. employment statistics, weaker numbers are expected. The results will be announced at 9:30 PM Japan time simultaneously with the U.S. employment statistics. The USD/CAD market will be influenced by both sets of data.
First, let’s watch the market’s reaction after the U.S. employment statistics are released at 21:30. The direction of the movement is still uncertain, but if the U.S. dollar starts weakening, consider taking long positions in gold, which is currently deeply sold off.