This week, the spotlight is on the dollar-yen exchange rate. The unexpectedly strong U.S. JOLTS job openings have pushed it beyond 150 yen, and then it suddenly dropped to the 147 yen range. It’s a rough ride, and while there’s no confirmation at this point whether it was intervention or not, there’s speculation.
Today, there was a moment when it plummeted from around 149 yen to near 148.26 in the morning in Tokyo. The subsequent recovery is limited to the late 148-yen range. The impression is that 150 yen is gradually becoming a heavy burden.
In the market, there are speculations not only about intervention but also about medium-term position adjustments. It’s pointed out that there could be profit-taking selling due to fund repatriation. Additionally, in the short term, with the release of U.S. employment statistics tomorrow, there’s a timing for possible adjustments, given the movements in bond yields.
In the global market later, economic indicators to be announced include U.S. Challenger job cuts for September, U.S. initial jobless claims for 09/24 – 09/30, U.S. trade balance for August, and Canada’s international merchandise trade for August. With the U.S. employment statistics coming tomorrow, the market is expected to be sensitive to the jobless claims figures. Market expectations are for an increase to 210,000 claims, slightly up from the previous 204,000.
According to Bloomberg, there seems to have been no Japanese intervention on October 3rd. The background of the temporary sharp rebound could be due to the market’s nervousness combined with algorithmic trading reacting to the breaking of the significant level of 150 yen, among other factors. Regardless of the actual reasons, there’s strong caution at around 150 yen, and there’s a growing sense of fear when buying from here, so the outlook for dollar-yen is bearish.