Forex Top Team

At the ECB Council, Market Sentiment Shifts Towards Interest Rate Hike Pause, Leading to Euro Selling – Confirmation Expected in Today’s ECB President’s Speech

This week brings a lot of market-moving events, including the US FOMC, the Bank of England, Switzerland and Turkey, China’s policy rate, and the Bank of Japan announcing their policy interest rates among major countries. However, until Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting, there’s a lack of major events. Traders are beginning the week with a wait-and-see attitude.

Today, the Tokyo market is closed due to Respect for the Aged Day. In the Asian markets, the focus is mainly on China-related news. Earlier in the day, there was a report that “Chinese authorities have detained several employees of China Evergrande Group’s asset management division for wealthy clients,” leading to a sharp 25% decline in China Evergrande’s stock. However, at present, the decline in the company’s stock seems to have subsided, and it’s trading near the closing price of the previous business day. Nevertheless, given the weak performance of US stocks at the end of last week, Asian-Pacific stocks are generally trading weakly.

The foreign exchange market is relatively stable. USD/JPY is trading in the high 147 yen range, EUR/USD is in the low 1.06s, GBP/USD is moving between the mid to high 1.23s and low 1.24s, and AUD/USD is fluctuating in the low 0.64s. The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to risk sentiment, is relatively stable, and risk aversion pressure is modest. NY crude oil futures are being bought aggressively, pushing the price into the mid-91-dollar range, which may be contributing to strength in the Australian dollar.

Today, the market appears to be in a mild ranging trend. The key points to watch are whether USD/JPY will enter the 148 yen range and whether EUR/USD will move towards the 1.0500 range.

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12th in July 2024, Today’s Options

EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0650: €1.8 billion 1.0690: €1.1 billion 1.0695: €873 million 1.0700: €896 million 1.0800: €1.7 billion 1.0850: €2.4 billion 1.0900: €934 million USD/JPY:

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