Recently, the USD has steadily climbed, but corrections have been shallow. The value barely moved in response to Finance Minister Kanda’s remarks, his first yen-weakening intervention in two weeks. This might be due to the combined effect of rising US bond yields, increasing concerns about inflation due to high oil prices, and the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which indirectly supports USD buying.
Today, there are many scheduled speeches by ECB officials. As the ECB Council’s announcement on September 14 approaches, there are speeches scheduled as a last-minute push before the blackout period. These include speeches by Villeroy de Galhau, the Governor of the Bank of France, Knot, the President of the Netherlands Bank, Holzmann, the Governor of the Austrian Central Bank, De Cos, the Governor of the Belgian National Bank, and Elderson, an ECB Executive Board member. Additionally, the results of the “Decision Maker Panel Survey” by the Bank of England will be published.
There are also several US-related events that could provide clues about the USD. Economic indicators such as Initial Jobless Claims (08/27 – 09/02), Non-Farm Labor Productivity Index (Final Q2), and Unit Labor Costs (Q2) related to the labor market are scheduled to be released. In the past, the market has reacted to fluctuations in Unit Labor Costs as it is indicative of wage trends. In terms of speeches, several Federal Reserve officials, including Harker, the President of the Philadelphia Fed, Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Fed, Williams, the President of the New York Fed, Bostic, the President of the Atlanta Fed, and Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, are scheduled to speak.
Additionally, the weekly US crude oil inventory statistics will be released. Market reactions will be closely watched as high oil prices could indirectly contribute to USD strength through inflation concerns.
USD/JPY is currently stagnant around the 147 yen level, but it is still expected to face resistance on the upside. Support is seen around 145.00, but if there’s no significant movement, you plan to close your position early.
