Major currencies are showing a lack of clear direction. Trading within a narrow range is expected to continue until the release of US retail sales data at 21:30. The previous two releases of US retail sales showed weakness, partly due to the increase in gasoline prices, but a solid recovery into positive territory is expected this time. If this leads to a risk-on sentiment, USD/JPY may firmly recover towards the 136 yen level and attempt higher levels. If the improvement exceeds expectations and shows an increase of more than 1% compared to the previous month, a significant strengthening of the US dollar could also occur.
Today, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a public hearing involving the former management of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, as well as Vice Chair Quarles of the Federal Reserve Board, who is responsible for financial stability. If concerns over regional bank issues intensify, it could become a negative factor for the US dollar.
Expect significant market movements after the release of US retail sales data. Additionally, at the same time, the Canadian Consumer Price Index will be released, so it’s worth paying attention to the direction of the Canadian dollar (CAD) as well.