The beginning of the week started with a gradual depreciation of the yen. The biggest topic for the yen exchange rate is the appointment of the next governor of the Bank of Japan, and the government will formally present a personnel proposal to the Diet tomorrow. At the end of last week, it was reported that Kazuo Ueda would be appointed in advance, and he himself has clearly stated that it is necessary to continue easing at this time. In the market, the shock of not being Vice Governor Amamiya seems to have subsided.
However, the future policy management is still unknown. At this point, the speculations of market players looking back on Mr. Ueda’s past are no more than speculation. What kind of policy do you actually have? It will be necessary to verify, including communication techniques at press conferences. I think it is better not to stick to the image of being a theoretician, taciturn, or a practitioner.
The latest US consumer price index will be announced tomorrow. The year-on-year growth in January is expected to slow to 6.2% from the previous 6.5% in December. The core year-on-year rate of change is also expected to be 5.5%, a slowdown from the previous 5.7% in December. On the other hand, the month-on-month forecast was +0.5%, up from the previous +0.1% (revised upward from -0.1%). The core month-on-month growth is expected to be +0.4%, the same level as last time.
Although there is a sense that the trend of slowing year-on-year growth has taken hold, the unexpected strength of the recent US employment statistics has led to speculation that consumer demand may be stronger than expected. It looks like it’s going easy.
With tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming up, the market is unlikely to tilt in one direction today.
Ahead of tomorrow’s US consumer price index, it is assumed that the range will be practiced today. However, the January CPI in Switzerland increased by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and there are speculations of further interest rate hikes, so the CHF is a buy.