This week began amid a worldwide holiday related to Christmas. The market was quiet yesterday. The United Kingdom and other former British Commonwealth countries will also have a holiday in lieu of Christmas today. Continental European countries open for trading, but London time is likely to remain illiquid. It is likely that the development will follow the trend of the start of trading in the US market.
The dollar-yen exchange rate was affected by the expansion of the YCC fluctuation range at the Bank of Japan’s final meeting of the year. It is still fresh in our minds that the dollar-yen pair plummeted from the ¥137 level to the mid-130 yen range at one point. After that, there is a trend of buybacks, but the price has not jumped so much in spite of the thin trading, and the movement has remained gradual. The rally from the plunge of about 7 yen wide has not yet reached half of that. First of all, it is likely to seek a return high price level.
As the New York market resumes trading, trends in US bond yields are likely to give hints as to how the dollar/yen exchange rate will recover. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to around 3.408% on Dec. 7 and is now trending upward. I would like to pay attention to whether it can return to the 3.80-3.82% level.
It is assumed that the number of market participants will decrease today and price fluctuations will be difficult. If there is a particularly big movement, I will consider entering, but basically it is a state posture.