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Pay attention to the pound-dollar, which has a lot of ingredients, as the trend of depreciation of the dollar continues

I would like to pay attention to the trend of the pound-dollar today to see if the trend of the dollar’s depreciation will continue. The trend of the dollar’s depreciation is due to expectations of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the US Fed. Last week’s slowdown in US consumer price index growth had an impact on the dollar’s selling direction, and yesterday’s US producer price index numbers also suggested that inflation had begun to peak out. However, after the release of the Producer Price Index, the dollar selling reaction was immediately followed by autonomous buybacks, and the dollar selling has come to a halt in the short term.

Yesterday, reports circulated in the New York market that a missile believed to be made in Russia fell into Poland, killing two people. The market has shown a history of risk-averse dollar-buying reactions. U.S. President Biden later said it was unlikely that the missile was fired from Russia. It was reportedly a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile system. In general, the dollar exchange rate has remained stronger than when the US Producer Price Index was announced the previous day. Judging from the price movement, it seems likely that the dollar short positions may be accumulating in the short term.

Among them, the pound-dollar was at the psychological level of 1.20 in yesterday’s market. It has rebounded by 1650 points from the low of 1.0350 level during the previous Truss administration. With events such as the announcement of the UK price index and the appearance of a series of senior Bank of England officials in parliament today, and the announcement of the medium-term financial plan by the Sunak administration tomorrow, the pound exchange rate is likely to attract attention. In the London market after this, I would like to check whether there will be a correction in the pound exchange rate.

 

Yesterday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was lower than expected, and although the US was tilted towards selling, it went completely wrong and resulted in a big loss cut. Today,  we will pay attention to the price movement after October US retail sales.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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