Today, the US employment statistics will be announced, and it will be checked if there is any change in the US rate hike route.

The movement to buy dollars has been increasing recently. It is pointed out that the rate hike rate of the US FOMC is relatively faster than that of other major central banks as a material for aggressive dollar buying. The Eurodollar plunged to the 1.02 level yesterday, but there was widespread belief that the ECB’s rate hike would slow down as Europe’s economic slowdown was wary of the background.

On the other hand, as a negative dollar buying material, it is pointed out that there is a movement to avoid risks due to the low stock prices and low crude oil prices. Major government bonds have been bought as safe assets, and funds are concentrated on the dollar as US bond yields decline. While the dollar-yen pair was sluggish yesterday, the euro-dollar pair, the pound-dollar pair, the Australian dollar / dollar pair fell, and the cross-yen pair also fell.

The stock market has been unstable at the moment, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is at a low level of around 2.8%. Trading continues while keeping an eye on the movement of European stocks, US stock futures and after-hours trading. In terms of the above-mentioned aggressive dollar buying, the minutes of the US FOMC will be released in the afternoon of NY. It is expected that a bullish stance will be maintained that surpasses other major central banks.
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Economic indicators to be announced in overseas markets after this include Eurozone retail sales (May), US MBA mortgage application index (week to 1st), US ISM non-manufacturing business index (June), etc. The US ISM non-manufacturing business index is expected to be around 54.0, down from the previous 55.9.

US employment statistics in about 30 minutes. The USD will move a lot, so pay attention to the movement after this.

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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