Awareness of a strong dollar in view of parliamentary testimony

FRB Chair Powell will give a semi-annual parliamentary testimony at the Senate Banking Committee today. It is expected that it will emphasize its aggressive tightening stance against rising prices, which is likely to lead to a move to buy dollars. Since the dollar-yen pair rose sharply yesterday, we are cautious about buying from here, but we are conscious of buying dollars in euro dollars, pound dollars, etc. The dollar-yen pair also maintained the 136-yen level during the adjustment phase of the Tokyo market today, which gives a firm sense of the downside, making it easy to invite short-term sources to buy. As the dollar strengthens, it is quite possible that the dollar will move beyond the highs from yesterday to this morning.

There is a strong view that Eurodollar is aiming for parity in the medium to long term, so there is a tendency for sales to come out on the return. Yesterday, the buying of the Euroyen also supported the dollar, but due to the decline in US stocks, it is difficult to sell the yen, and the euroyen is expected to have a heavy upside as the cross yen is selling in general. Is it a selling trend for the euro in general?

It is expected that the British price statistics will be slightly stronger at 15:00 when the pound was noticed. The impact is limited, as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, which is the most noticeable target for inflation, is in line with market expectations. Expectations for a significant rate hike in the UK are increasing, but expectations have not changed significantly with this indicator, and there are moves to make adjustments.

USDJPY continues to move steadily. It is assumed that the balance between selling Japanese yen and buying dollars will continue.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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