Nervous market prices are likely to continue toward the weekend, and there are few index announcements today.

In the overseas market after this, the nervous market is likely to continue toward the weekend. There are few major economic indicator announcements that can be used as clues today. Eurozone consumer confidence and breaking news (May) will be announced.

While the central banks of each country took a monetary tightening stance in response to inflation, the stock market is becoming easier to sell. It is symbolized by the fact that Apple stocks have fallen by more than 20% from the high price. The outlook for retailers’ earnings released this week was a bit pessimistic. There seems to be concern that inflation and monetary tightening will stiffen consumers’ wallets.

The United Kingdom, the United States, etc. have already started raising interest rates, and the current focus is on the ECB’s July interest rate hike. The ECB has a constitution in which it is difficult to gather the opinions of the central bank governors due to the disparity in the economic conditions of the North and South countries, but since all countries are suffering from rising inflation, this monetary tightening seems to be able to start smoothly.

As the stock price depreciation shows, this week’s market is in a situation where a sense of caution about the future economic slowdown and stagflation is being pushed to the fore. Even in the exchange market, it seems that the point of interest is shifting from the interest rate difference so far to the risk aversion / preference market that looks at economic trends.

In Asian time, it was good news that China lowered the 5-year LPR (loan prime rate) more than expected. Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks are doing well. Buying is predominant in the Nikkei 225, US stock futures and after-hours trading. I would like to pay attention to whether this mood will continue in the European and US markets.

This week’s exchange is consistently rewinding and adjusting mode. It is assumed that USD sales will continue.

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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