This week, the market was in a state of turmoil due to various points of turmoil. In the situation in Ukraine, a ceasefire talk between Ukraine and Russia was held face-to-face in Turkey. The Russian side announced that the Ukrainian side would inform President Putin and refrain from attacking Kyiv (Kiev). However, in reality, the bombardment in Kyiv has not stopped, and the prevailing view is that Russian troops are aiming for supply or relocation to the east rather than withdrawal. Putin has also announced that he will stop supplying natural gas, which he has argued with Europe, unless he pays in the ruble. The Eurodollar, which was bought up to the high 1.11 level due to the progress of the ceasefire talks, has been pushed back to the high 1.10 level.
The dollar-yen pair has been moving up and down violently. At the beginning of the week, the Bank of Japan announced that it will carry out a limit operation on long-term government bonds and a continuous limit operation on the 29th to 31st. The dollar-yen pair rose from the 122-yen level to the 125-yen level at once due to the widening observation of the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. However, after that, buying did not continue and it fell back. The background is that the government was wary of restraining the sharp depreciation of the yen. It was pushed back to the first half of the 121 yen level. And when the Bank of Japan announces an increase in the amount and the number of times in the government bond purchase plan for the April-June period, the yen is depreciating.
The dollar exchange rate this week has been swayed by a fierce swing against the yen and the euro, but overall it has been pushed by the depreciation of the dollar. Under such circumstances, the US employment statistics will be released today as well. Regarding the next US FOMC, the market is predominantly observing rate hikes in the 0.5% range. US employment statistics could be a catalyst for market gaze to return to US economic trends. Market forecasts show that the unemployment rate will drop to 3.7% from the previous 3.8%, the number of non-farm payrolls will increase by 49,000,000, slowing from the previous increase of 678,000, and the average hourly wage will be year-on-year. It is expected to be + 5.5%, an increase from the previous + 5.1%.
Pay attention to the movement of the USD after the release of US employment statistics. However, it is assumed that the market interest is more in Russia than in the US employment statistics. First of all, pay attention to how Russia and the EU, which have said that they will stop supplying natural gas unless they pay the ruble, will come to terms with each other.
