Today, the US Consumer Price Index will be announced in October. The market is attracting a lot of attention as a representative of the US inflation index. The median forecast of economists in advance is + 0.6% month-on-month and + 5.9% year-on-year. The increase is expected to accelerate further from the previous month’s month-on-month increase of 0.4% and the previous year’s increase of 5.4%.
Financial officials have so far recognized that rising inflation is temporary. However, it is revealed that the base effect due to the influence of the new corona virus is not enough. Political and economic intentions on the part of producers act on the rise in energy prices. OPEC + does not comply with requests to increase production in major importing countries such as the United States. There is a view that the supply bottleneck problem will be longer than expected.
Also, for the US financial authorities, employment has become two major missions along with inflation. According to the latest US employment statistics, the number of employees has increased and the unemployment rate has decreased, which is a good number on the surface. However, the labor force participation rate is sluggish despite rising wages. The situation of labor shortage is spreading, and there is concern that the future growth ofUSA will be hindered from the production side.
Speaking of rising consumer prices, there is a strong image in Japan that they are refraining from buying. On the other hand, in the United States, it is pointed out that it shows the strength of consumer sentiment. However, it may be necessary to pay attention to whether the distortion of the labor market does not affect the consumption behavior of the American people.
The US consumer price index is at a level of 6% compared to the previous year, and there are concerns about adverse effects on the economy. Whether rising inflation will soon lead to interest rate hike observations and dollar buying. I would like to make a decision based on the situation of US stock trends.
October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Monthly] Previous time 0.4% Forecast 0.6%
October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [YoY change] Previous 5.4% Forecast 5.8%
October Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [Monthly] Previous 0.2% Forecast 0.4%
October Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [YoY change] Previous 4.0% Forecast 4.3%
Today, pay attention to whether the US dollar will move on this occasion.