Today’s noteworthy material is a lecture by FRB Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Conference. Following the spread of the new Corona Delta strain, this conference will be shortened to 27 days in online format. Until last week, observations of an early start of tapering were widespread, and the dollar was leaning toward a stronger dollar in the foreign exchange market. However, with the awareness of Delta stocks, the market is also cautious. The dollar exchange rate is turning toward a weaker dollar.
However, the market price does not seem to go so easily. Yesterday, Fed President Bullard St. Louis and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City asserted hawkish opinions. There was a scene where the stock market became unstable again and the dollar index went up. Two suicide bombings broke out in Kabul, Afghanistan, at the end of the deal, adding geopolitical risk.
In the lecture by Chair Powell, the route to start tapering seems to be the main line. However, the focus is on how much anxiety about Delta strain infection is included. I would also like to note whether the perception that inflation is temporary will be followed or corrected. In any case, the market is likely to react sensitively to Powell’s remarks as Taka Pigeon’s views are mixed. It’s also Friday, and it’s likely to be an event that will dominate the market flow from next week onwards.
Exactly how far the re-expansion of the corona will be factored in. The number of new infections in the United States on the 26th yesterday continues to increase to 187,473.
As a prediction, I am thinking of a scenario in which USD will be sold significantly on the relaxation extension route in consideration of corona, but I will not know the result unless I open the lid, so I am currently waiting in no position.
This week I’ve turned back in the direction of selling US dollars, but now I’m in a cautious mode. The US dollar has also been bought to some extent, and it is becoming difficult to get either.
Tonight, we have real gross domestic product (GDP, revised value) for the April-June quarter at 21:30, so I would like to keep up with the flow after this.