📊 Technical Analysis | May 13, 2026
■ Overall Summary
The current market environment is becoming quite extreme.
Markets are accelerating once again into a:
“Broad Risk-On Move Across Metals, Equities, and Commodity Currencies”
The biggest feature this time is clearly:
“The abnormal strength in silver.”
Speculative enthusiasm in the market is becoming very intense.
■ Current Market Leaders
1st: Silver (XAG/USD)
The clear market leader.
Strong buying across all timeframes.
Momentum is accelerating aggressively.
This is a classic case of:
“Concentrated speculative capital inflows.”
The move is becoming dangerously strong.
■ 2nd: NASDAQ100
Still one of the strongest assets globally.
The AI-driven rally continues.
Dip-buying opportunities are becoming increasingly rare.
■ 3rd: Nikkei 225
Extremely strong.
Bullish across all timeframes.
Even temporary yen-strength corrections are failing to weaken the index.
Very strong underlying market structure.
■ 4th: AUD/USD
Very clean bullish structure.
Commodity currencies continue strengthening broadly.
Risk-on sentiment remains intact.
■ 5th: Crude Oil
WTI is strengthening again.
This is important.
It suggests the current environment is:
“Not a recession-driven market.”
Higher oil prices, equities, silver, and commodity currencies are all rising simultaneously.
■ USD/JPY
A very difficult market.
Short-term rebound remains active.
However,
the daily timeframe still carries bearish pressure.
This means:
the move may still represent only a:
“Recovery rally.”
Even in the upper 157 range,
USD/JPY has not fully structurally recovered.
■ EUR/USD
Still very strong overall.
However,
signs of overheating are beginning to appear.
■ GBP/USD
Starting to weaken slightly.
Not nearly as strong as the euro.
■ Cross-Yen Pairs
The picture is becoming more divided.
AUD/JPY
Very strong.
One of the cleanest bullish structures currently available.
NZD/JPY
Short-term weakness emerging.
Momentum is fading somewhat.
GBP/JPY
Becoming increasingly unstable.
■ Gold
Still strong.
However,
not nearly as strong as silver.
This is extremely important.
The market is currently favoring:
“High-risk speculation”
over:
“Traditional safe-haven positioning.”
■ BTC
Surprisingly sluggish.
Not showing the same strength as NASDAQ or silver.
This suggests:
this is not a:
“Crypto-only rally.”
■ European Equities
Performance divergence is becoming significant.
DAX
Recovering somewhat.
CAC40
Still relatively weak.
FTSE
Mixed and unstable.
Overall:
Europe remains structurally fragile.
■ Current Market Structure
Strongest Assets
Silver
NASDAQ
Nikkei 225
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
WTI Crude Oil
Strong Assets
Gold
EUR/USD
S&P500
Weak Assets
GBP-related pairs
Parts of European equities
USD-related assets
■ Most Important Point
The current market environment increasingly reflects:
“Risk-On + Reaccelerating Inflation”
This is different from the earlier phase driven mainly by:
“Rate-cut expectations alone.”
Now we are simultaneously seeing:
Higher oil prices
Higher metal prices
Stronger commodity currencies
This is a very important shift.
■ Current Market Theme
Capital is increasingly concentrating into:
AI
Commodities
Speculative assets
The market is becoming increasingly euphoric.
■ Warning Signs
Especially silver.
The pace of the move is becoming extremely aggressive.
This means:
the risk of sudden sharp declines is also becoming extremely high.
Volatility expansion risk is rising rapidly.
■ Final Conclusion
Currently, the cleanest long opportunities remain:
XAG/USD
NASDAQ100
Nikkei 225
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
WTI Crude Oil
Areas requiring caution:
USD/JPY (may still be only a recovery rally)
GBP-related assets
European equities
