December Number of new employees: 621,000 last time, expected 275,000
December Unemployment rate Last time 8.5% Forecast 8.6%
December Changes in the number of non-farm payrolls [month-on-month] Last time 245,000 people Expected 71,000 people
December Unemployment rate Last time 6.7% Expected 6.8%
December average hourly wage [month-on-month] Last time 0.3% Forecast 0.2%
December average hourly wage [compared to the same month of the previous year] Previous time 4.4% Expected 4.4%
The dollar’s appreciation has spread this week. In the United States, Congress has finally officially approved Mr. Biden’s victory in the presidential election, and Mr. Trump’s de facto defeat declaration has given a go-ahead to the new administration from the 20th. Among them, it seems that the US long-term bond yield soared due to speculation about the issuance of government bonds due to new economic support measures, which prompted the dollar to appreciate. In addition, the market price changed at the beginning of the year. It has also been pointed out that adjustments will be strengthened due to the weakening dollar since last year.
However, today is ahead of the event to announce the US employment statistics, and it seems that the brunt of dollar buying will slow down as we want to determine the result. Also, as the weekend is approaching, it is possible that some adjustments will be made to new dollar buying positions.
According to the US employment statistics released today in December, the market forecast is that the increase in the number of non-farm payrolls will be suppressed to around 50,000. The number of US ADP employees in December, which was announced on Wednesday, was unexpectedly declining rather than slowing, although the relevance at the preliminary report stage is said to be weak. The unemployment rate is also harsh, with the market forecast being 6.8%, up 6.7% from the previous time.
The dollar was appreciating amid high stock prices this week, breaking the chart of the dollar’s depreciation of risk appetite until last year. Is there any change in the common sense of the market as the Trump market changes to the Biden market? I would like to pay attention to the reaction after today’s US employment statistics.
Currently, there is a movement to adjust the USD, and it is difficult to read the movement. If there is a strong trend after the US employment statistics, we will consider entry again.