Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

8th in July 2020, Today’s option

-EUR/USD:

1.1250 551 million
1.1300 1.9 billion

-USD/JPY:

107.45 352 million
107.50 1.9 billion
107.55 915 million
108.00 525 million
108.40 550 million
108.50 400 million

-AUD/USD:

0.6975 513 million

-NZD/USD:

0.6525 264 million

Below are the options that are likely to affect price movements tonight.

-EUR/USD:

1.1300 1.9 billion

-USD/JPY:

107.50 1.9 billion
107.55 915 million

Although the EURUSD is on an upward trend, it is difficult for the upper price to progress. Tonight, we assume that there are 1.1300 options with 1.9 billion resistors. Below is assumed to be 1.1200 supported.

USDJPY has a range tendency. Tonight, we assume that the range will be around 1.9 billion with 107.50 options and 915 million with 107.55 options. Below, there is a thick buy at 107.00-20, and it is assumed that it is easy to support here. Above, there are small sales from 107.70 to 108.20, but we also think that there is a big stop loss purchase, and there is a possibility that it will increase greatly if the rise catches fire.

Currently, the power balance in 15 minutes is

CHF ＞ JPY = USD ＞ GBP ＞ EUR ＞ CAD ＞ NZD ＞ AUD

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

Read More