Technical Analysis
October 19, 2026
Overview
Today’s main themes are strength in AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY, improving conditions in major currencies against the U.S. dollar, weakness in gold, and short-term corrections in equity indices.
AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are Strong Buy across all timeframes. GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY, and NZD/JPY also show buy signals through the daily chart. EUR/GBP, by contrast, is Strong Sell across all timeframes, with continued weakness in the euro against sterling.
Among commodities, gold futures are bearish across all timeframes. Silver is Neutral on the hourly chart, with selling signals remaining on the shorter-term and daily charts. WTI crude retains a Strong Buy daily bias, while its hourly reading is Neutral. For BTC, hourly buying conflicts with short-term selling.
Higher-timeframe signals are weak in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and French CAC 40. The UK 100 is also correcting from the short-term through hourly charts. The Nikkei has rebounded in the short term, but selling remains on the hourly and daily charts.
Main Changes Since the Previous Update
USD/JPY improved from Strong Sell to Strong Buy on the hourly chart and from Neutral to Buy on the daily chart. The 5-minute chart, however, is showing Sell, indicating a near-term correction.
AUD/USD improved from Strong Sell to Buy on the daily chart, while AUD/JPY improved from Strong Sell to Strong Buy. NZD/USD and NZD/JPY also shifted to Buy on the daily chart.
CAD/JPY strengthened from Buy to Strong Buy on the daily chart. CHF/JPY retains bullish higher-timeframe readings, but the 5-minute and 15-minute charts have turned lower.
Gold futures shifted from Strong Buy to Strong Sell on the hourly chart and from Neutral to Sell on the daily chart. Natural gas improved to Buy on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
The S&P 500 shifted to Strong Sell on the hourly and daily charts. The DAX retreated, with Strong Sell readings on the 15-minute and hourly charts and Neutral on the daily chart. The CAC 40 also turned bearish through the daily chart.
Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD — 1.1213
5-minute: Strong Buy; 15-minute: Neutral; hourly and daily: Strong Sell.
The short-term rebound is facing clear selling pressure on the higher timeframes. On the 15-minute chart, moving averages are Sell while indicators are Strong Buy.
The basic setup favors selling rallies, but watch whether the 5-minute rebound loses momentum and the 15-minute chart aligns to the downside.
GBP/USD — 1.3331
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned at Strong Buy from the short-term through hourly charts. On the daily chart, moving averages are Neutral while indicators are leading with Strong Buy.
This is a potential pullback-buying setup. Watch whether hourly buying holds after a short-term correction.
USD/JPY — 158.19
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
The hourly and daily readings have improved, leaving the higher timeframes bullish. On the 5-minute chart, however, moving averages are Neutral and indicators are Strong Sell.
For a potential pullback-buying setup, wait for the 5-minute sell signal to clear.
USD/CHF — 0.8253
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly: Buy; daily: Sell.
The short-term and hourly readings have improved, but daily indicators remain Strong Sell. Hourly moving averages are Neutral, with indicators leading the move higher.
Treat this as a rebound against the daily sell bias. Watch for improvement in the hourly moving averages and signs that daily selling is easing.
AUD/USD — 0.6985
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
The previous Strong Sell reading on the daily chart has cleared. Daily moving averages are still Neutral, so the market has yet to confirm that the buy bias is firmly established.
This is a potential pullback-buying setup. Focus on whether buying holds on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
NZD/USD — 0.5667
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned at Strong Buy from the short-term through hourly charts. The daily reading has also improved to Buy, although daily moving averages remain Neutral.
This is a potential pullback-buying setup. Watch whether the daily moving averages also turn higher.
Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 177.37
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly: Buy; daily: Sell.
Hourly moving averages are Strong Buy, while hourly indicators are Neutral. On the daily chart, both moving averages and indicators are Sell.
This is a rebound against the daily downtrend. Watch whether hourly indicators improve to Buy or short-term buying breaks down.
GBP/JPY — 210.88
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
The pair maintains a bullish bias across all timeframes. Daily moving averages are Neutral, but indicators are Strong Buy.
The basic setup favors buying pullbacks. Check whether hourly buying holds after a correction.
CHF/JPY — 191.67
5-minute: Strong Sell; 15-minute: Sell; hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
Short-term conditions are correcting against the bullish higher-timeframe bias. Both moving averages and indicators are bearish on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.
For a potential pullback buy, wait for the 15-minute chart to return to Buy. If the hourly buy signal also weakens, watch for a deeper correction.
AUD/JPY — 110.50
Strong Buy across all timeframes.
Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the upside across all timeframes. The previous Strong Sell daily reading has cleared, bringing the short-term and daily trends into alignment.
AUD/JPY is one of the clearer pullback-buying candidates among the yen crosses. During a correction, watch whether buying on the 15-minute and hourly charts persists.
NZD/JPY — 89.64
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Buy.
The daily chart has joined the bullish short-term and hourly readings. Daily moving averages, however, remain Neutral.
For a potential pullback buy, watch for improvement in the daily moving averages and continued hourly buying.
CAD/JPY — 112.30
Strong Buy across all timeframes.
Moving averages and indicators are bullish throughout. The daily buy signal has strengthened, bringing the short-term and daily trends into clear alignment.
Along with AUD/JPY, this is a potential pullback-buying candidate. Watch for buying to strengthen again after a short-term correction.
EUR/GBP — 0.8411
Strong Sell across all timeframes.
Moving averages and indicators are bearish throughout, reflecting continued euro weakness against sterling.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. On a rebound, watch whether selling persists on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
AUD/NZD — 1.2327
5-minute: Strong Buy; 15-minute: Neutral; hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Sell.
The pair has rebounded from the previous Strong Sell hourly reading. On the 15-minute chart, however, Strong Buy moving averages conflict with Sell indicators, and the daily chart remains bearish.
A continued short-term rebound would need the 15-minute chart to align with the buy signals. Assess this separately from a confirmed daily trend reversal.
EUR/CHF — 0.9254
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Sell.
The pair has rebounded in the short term, but daily moving averages and indicators are both Strong Sell. Both hourly readings are Neutral.
Watch whether the rebound lifts the hourly chart into Buy. If considering selling rallies, wait for short-term buying to lose momentum.
Commodities
Gold, XAU/USD — 4,163.18
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Neutral.
Moving averages and indicators are bearish from the short-term through hourly charts. On the daily chart, Sell moving averages conflict with Buy indicators.
The setup favors selling rallies based on the short-term and hourly readings. Watch whether the daily chart also turns bearish or the hourly signal improves.
Gold Futures — 4,185.92
5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Sell.
The previous rebound has broken down, and all timeframes have turned bearish. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across all timeframes.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. On a rebound, check whether the 15-minute and hourly sell signals hold.
Silver, XAG/USD — 57.5255
5-minute: Strong Sell; 15-minute: Sell; hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Sell.
On the hourly chart, Sell moving averages conflict with Strong Buy indicators. The short-term and daily sell signals are aligned, but the hourly direction is not clear.
For a potential rally sell, wait for the hourly chart to turn lower.
Silver Futures — 57.710
5-minute: Strong Sell; 15-minute: Sell; hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Sell.
Hourly moving averages are Sell while indicators are Strong Buy. The previous short-term-to-hourly rebound has weakened, although hourly indicators still show buying pressure.
The broader setup favors selling rallies, but wait for the hourly signals to align.
WTI Crude Oil — 98.06
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Buy.
The daily buy bias remains intact. On the hourly chart, Strong Buy moving averages conflict with Sell indicators. On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are Sell while indicators are Buy.
For a potential pullback buy, look for hourly indicators to improve. The 15-minute buy signal alone is not enough to confirm a renewed advance.
Natural Gas — 3.146
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Buy; hourly and daily: Buy.
The previous Sell readings on the 15-minute and hourly charts have cleared, leaving all timeframes bullish. Hourly moving averages are still Neutral, while indicators are leading with Strong Buy.
For a potential pullback buy, watch whether hourly moving averages also turn to Buy.
BTC/USD — 82,401.0
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Sell; hourly: Strong Buy; daily: Neutral.
Hourly moving averages and indicators are bullish, but both short-term readings are Sell. On the daily chart, moving averages are Buy while indicators are Neutral, so the bullish signals are not fully aligned.
Wait to see whether the short-term correction ends or hourly buying breaks down.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones — 52,002.41
5-minute: Strong Buy; 15-minute and hourly: Neutral; daily: Strong Buy.
The daily buy bias remains intact, but on the 15-minute and hourly charts, Buy moving averages conflict with Sell indicators.
If considering a pullback buy, watch for the 15-minute and hourly indicators to improve to Buy as well.
S&P 500 — 7,659.44
5-minute: Buy; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
The previous Buy readings on the hourly and daily charts have broken down. The 5-minute rebound is facing clear selling pressure from the 15-minute through daily charts.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. Watch for the 5-minute buy signal to lose momentum.
Nasdaq 100 — 29,187.55
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
The short-term rebound has weakened, while selling persists on the higher timeframes. On the 5-minute chart, moving averages are Sell and indicators are Neutral.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. Treat rebounds cautiously until hourly selling eases.
DAX — 25,350.00
5-minute: Neutral; 15-minute and hourly: Strong Sell; daily: Neutral.
The index has retreated from Strong Buy across all timeframes in the previous update. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside on both the 15-minute and hourly charts.
This is a short-term rally-selling candidate. Since the daily chart has not turned Sell, confirm alignment on the shorter timeframes.
UK 100 — 10,785.20
5-minute and 15-minute: Strong Sell; hourly: Sell; daily: Strong Buy.
Short-term and hourly conditions are correcting against the Strong Buy daily bias. Hourly moving averages are Neutral and indicators are Strong Sell.
For a potential pullback buy, wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.
CAC 40 — 7,848.18
5-minute: Sell; 15-minute, hourly, and daily: Strong Sell.
The previous buy signals from the short-term through hourly charts, along with a Neutral daily reading, have broken down. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the downside across all timeframes.
The basic setup favors selling rallies. On a rebound, watch whether the hourly sell bias persists.
Nikkei 225 — 65,026.00
5-minute: Strong Buy; 15-minute: Buy; hourly: Sell; daily: Strong Sell.
The index is rebounding in the short term, but both hourly moving averages and indicators are Sell. The daily Strong Sell reading also remains in place.
For a rally sell, wait for the short-term rebound to lose momentum. For continued buying, look for the hourly chart to improve.
Strength Rankings
Strong Buy across all timeframes
- AUD/JPY
- CAD/JPY
Buy across all timeframes
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- GBP/JPY
- NZD/JPY
- Natural Gas
Bullish on higher timeframes, with a short-term correction underway
- USD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
Daily buy bias intact; hourly confirmation pending
- WTI Crude Oil
- Dow Jones
Weakness Rankings
Strong Sell across all timeframes
- EUR/GBP
Sell across all timeframes
- Gold Futures
- CAC 40
Strong Sell from 15-minute through daily
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq 100
Strong Sell on both hourly and daily charts
- EUR/USD
Clear selling from the short-term through hourly charts
- Gold, XAU/USD
Strong Sell on both 15-minute and hourly charts
- DAX
Trading Strategy
Potential pullback buys
For AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY, focus on the Strong Buy readings and alignment between moving averages and indicators across all timeframes.
GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY, and natural gas also show bullish signals across all timeframes. Where daily or hourly moving averages remain Neutral, wait for confirmation that the buy bias is holding.
USD/JPY and CHF/JPY have bullish higher-timeframe signals but are correcting in the short term. They are potential pullback-buying candidates once the 5-minute and 15-minute charts recover to Buy.
Potential rally sells
For EUR/GBP, gold futures, and the CAC 40, focus on the alignment of sell signals across all timeframes.
EUR/USD, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 have clear higher-timeframe selling against short-term rebounds. Watch for short-term buying to lose momentum.
For XAU/USD and the DAX, use short-term-to-hourly selling as the main guide. Their daily charts are not aligned with a bearish signal, so treat them separately from instruments that are bearish through the daily timeframe.
Instruments awaiting directional alignment
USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/NZD, and EUR/CHF have short-term-to-hourly rebounds that conflict with daily selling.
Silver, crude oil, BTC, and the Dow have mixed signals across timeframes or between moving averages and indicators. The UK 100 and Nikkei also have opposing short-term and daily directions; watch for a change in the hourly readings.
Key Points
AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are clearly strong among the yen crosses. GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY are also bullish, but EUR/JPY retains a daily sell bias and CHF/JPY is undergoing a short-term correction.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD have improved, while EUR/USD is Strong Sell on both the hourly and daily charts. The major currency pairs against the dollar therefore do not all point in the same direction.
Selling in gold is clear from the short-term through hourly charts. Silver still has buying signals in its hourly indicators, so the two precious metals do not show the same degree of bearish alignment.
Higher-timeframe conditions are weak in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and CAC 40, while the UK 100 is also correcting in the short term. Do not infer that equities as a whole will keep rising solely from the Dow’s daily strength.
When holding several long positions in yen crosses, account for their shared exposure to yen selling. Buying both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY also increases exposure to sterling. Consider concentration in common currencies and market factors alongside the number of positions.
