Technical Analysis — October 13, 2026

Overview

Today’s main themes are rebounds in major currencies against the dollar, weakness in the hourly charts for USD/JPY and crude oil, and divergence among equity indices.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD have improved to strong buys from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. However, all remain bearish on the daily chart. These moves are best viewed as rebounds against their daily downtrends.

USD/JPY is bullish on the short-term and daily charts, but strongly bearish on the hourly chart. USD/CHF and USD/CAD are also strong sells from the short-term charts through the hourly chart, while remaining strong buys on the daily chart. The alignment in favor of dollar buying seen yesterday has broken down.

In commodities, WTI and natural gas are strong sells from the short-term charts through the hourly chart, while their daily buy signals remain. Copper continues to be a strong buy across all timeframes.

Among equity indices, the S&P 500 is a strong buy across all timeframes, and the Dow is bullish across all timeframes. By contrast, the hourly charts for the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei are strong sells, showing a split in direction among equity indices.

Key Changes Since the Previous Report

Compared with the October 12 report:

• EUR/USD and NZD/USD have shifted from strong sells across all timeframes to strong buys on the short-term and hourly charts. Buying in GBP/USD and AUD/USD has also extended through the hourly chart.
• USD/JPY has turned from a strong hourly buy to a strong sell. USD/CHF and USD/CAD have also reversed from strong buys to strong sells on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
• AUD/NZD has shifted from a strong hourly buy to a strong sell. Its strong daily buy remains, but the hourly signal for Australian dollar outperformance has weakened.
• WTI has turned from strong buys to strong sells on the 15-minute and hourly charts. Gold has improved to a strong hourly buy, while gold futures are strongly bearish on the daily chart.
• BTC has improved from an hourly sell to a strong hourly buy. Its daily chart remains neutral.
• The S&P 500 has improved to a strong buy on the 5-minute chart, bringing all timeframes into strong-buy alignment. The FTSE 100’s daily chart has improved from neutral to a strong buy, though its short-term charts are showing selling.
• The Nikkei fell from the previous reported level of 69,030.92 to 67,777.52. Its hourly chart has shifted from neutral to a strong sell, while its daily signal has weakened from a strong buy to a buy. Price changes are measured against the previous reported levels.

Foreign Exchange

EUR/USD — 1.1185

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a strong sell.

The short-term and hourly selling signals from yesterday have reversed. Moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart are aligned to the upside.

Buying is favored in the short term, but the daily downtrend remains in place. Even if considering a sell-the-rally trade, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.

GBP/USD — 1.3242

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a sell.

Moving averages and indicators are all aligned in strong-buy territory from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The rebound is clearer than it was yesterday.

This is a short-term dip-buy candidate. However, both moving averages and indicators on the daily chart remain bearish, so a daily trend reversal has not been confirmed.

USD/JPY — 158.19

The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is a buy, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a strong buy.

The pair is rebounding in the short term, but moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart point lower. The strong buy across all timeframes seen yesterday has given way to conflicting signals.

If considering a buy in line with the daily trend, wait for selling on the hourly chart to ease. The 5-minute buy signal alone is not enough to justify rushing into a trade.

USD/CHF — 0.8328

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong sells; the daily chart is a strong buy.

The higher-timeframe buying seen yesterday has reversed to selling on the hourly chart. The downside is clear from the short-term charts through the hourly chart.

This is a short-term sell-the-rally candidate, but the setup conflicts with the daily buy. If considering a daily-trend buy, wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.

AUD/USD — 0.6974

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a sell.

Moving averages and indicators are all aligned in strong-buy territory from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The pair has reversed from yesterday’s bearish direction.

This is a short-term dip-buy candidate. The daily chart remains bearish, so treat the short-term rebound separately from a daily trend reversal.

NZD/USD — 0.5609

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a strong sell.

The short-term and hourly charts have improved from the strong sell across all timeframes seen yesterday. Moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart are aligned in a strong buy.

The short-term rebound is clear, but the daily chart remains weak. Consider the current hourly buy signal rather than carrying forward yesterday’s sell signal unchanged.

USD/CAD — 1.4257

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong sells; the daily chart is a strong buy.

The strong-buy signals from the 15-minute chart and above seen yesterday have broken down. The pair is clearly split, with short-term and hourly selling against a daily buy.

Focus on the short-term selling. If considering a daily-trend dip-buy, wait for the hourly chart to improve.

Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength

EUR/JPY — 176.92

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The 15-minute chart has improved from neutral yesterday. However, buying has not extended to the hourly chart: its moving averages are neutral, while its indicators are bearish.

Watch whether the short-term rebound leads to an hourly buy signal or fades back into the daily downtrend.

GBP/JPY — 209.46

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is neutral.

Short-term and hourly strength remains intact. The daily chart, however, has weakened from a buy to neutral, with moving averages bearish and indicators bullish.

This is a short-term dip-buy candidate, but the higher-timeframe setup is weaker than yesterday, when the daily chart was also bullish.

CHF/JPY — 189.95

The hourly and daily charts are strong sells.

Yesterday, the hourly chart was a sell and the daily chart was neutral. Both have weakened to strong sells.

On the higher timeframes available, the direction is clear for selling rallies.

AUD/JPY — 110.30

The hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a sell.

The hourly buy remains, but the daily chart has weakened from neutral to a sell.

The hourly rebound conflicts with the daily downtrend. Even when trading the short-term buy, keep the daily weakness in mind.

NZD/JPY — 88.71

The hourly chart is a strong buy, while the daily chart is a strong sell.

As yesterday, the hourly rebound conflicts with the daily sell signal. NZD/USD has improved through the hourly chart, but the daily weakness in NZD/JPY remains.

If considering a sell in line with the daily trend, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.

CAD/JPY — 110.93

The hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The hourly strong buy from yesterday has disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily downtrend.

This is a sell-the-rally candidate. Watch whether the hourly chart improves to a buy or the selling continues.

EUR/GBP — 0.8447

The overall signal is a strong sell across all timeframes.

The weakness on the hourly and daily charts continues. On the 5-minute chart, however, moving averages are strongly bearish while indicators are strongly bullish.

The bias favors selling rallies, but the signals are not fully aligned on the short-term chart.

AUD/NZD — 1.2434

The hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a strong buy.

The strong hourly buy from yesterday has turned into a strong sell. On the hourly chart, the Australian dollar has lost relative strength against the New Zealand dollar.

The daily chart still favors the Australian dollar. If considering a dip-buy, wait for the hourly selling to ease.

EUR/CHF — 0.9314

The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The short-term and hourly charts have improved since yesterday. On the 15-minute chart, however, moving averages are strongly bullish while indicators are bearish.

This is a rebound against the daily downtrend. Monitor whether buying broadens; for a daily-trend sell, wait for the rebound to lose momentum.

Commodities

Gold — 4,182.99

The hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a sell.

The hourly chart has improved from neutral yesterday to a strong buy. Moving averages and indicators are aligned to the upside on the hourly chart.

The hourly rebound is clear, but the daily chart remains bearish. Keep the short-term buy separate from a potential daily trend reversal.

Gold Futures — 4,207.37

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The hourly chart is rebounding, but the short-term and daily charts are bearish. The signals are strongly divided across timeframes.

If considering a buy, wait for short-term selling to stop. If considering a sell, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.

Silver — 60.3990

The hourly and daily charts are strong sells.

The hourly sell from yesterday has strengthened, bringing it into alignment with the daily chart.

This is a candidate for selling rallies. Silver is notably weaker than gold, whose hourly chart is bullish.

Silver Futures — 60.648

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The short-term and daily charts are bearish, but the hourly chart is divided, with moving averages pointing lower and indicators pointing higher.

As a sell-the-rally candidate, watch for the hourly chart to align with the downside.

WTI Crude — 91.90

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong sells; the daily chart is a strong buy.

The strong buys on the 15-minute and hourly charts from yesterday have reversed. The downside is clear from the short-term charts through the hourly chart.

This is a short-term sell-the-rally candidate, but the daily chart remains a strong buy. If considering a daily-trend dip-buy, wait for the short-term charts through the hourly chart to improve.

Natural Gas — 3.115

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong sells; the daily chart is a buy.

Selling is aligned from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The daily signal has weakened from a strong buy yesterday to a buy.

Focus on short-term selling rallies, while recognizing that it conflicts with the daily buy.

Copper — 6.7723

All timeframes are strong buys.

As yesterday, the direction is aligned from the short-term charts through the daily chart. Moving averages and indicators are also bullish across the board.

Copper is the clearest dip-buy candidate among today’s commodities.

BTC/USD — 83,369.0

This is the Bitfinex price. The hourly and 5-hour charts are strong buys; the daily chart is neutral.

The hourly sell from yesterday has improved to a strong buy. The daily chart remains neutral, however, so the bullish direction is not yet aligned across the higher timeframes.

Consider it a buy candidate based primarily on the hourly chart, while watching for the daily signal to improve to a buy.

Equity Indices

Dow Jones — 51,850.55

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a buy.

Yesterday’s short-term correction has eased, bringing all timeframes into bullish territory.

The bias favors buying dips. Watch whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold after a pullback.

S&P 500 — 7,807.24

All timeframes are strong buys. Moving averages and indicators are also strongly bullish across the board.

The 5-minute sell signal from yesterday has disappeared, bringing the index into alignment with the bullish higher timeframes.

The S&P 500 has the clearest buy alignment among today’s equity indices. The bias favors buying dips.

Nasdaq 100 — 30,664.70

The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.

The hourly chart has weakened from neutral yesterday to a strong sell. The daily signal has also weakened from a strong buy to a buy.

There is a short-term rebound, but hourly weakness remains. For a daily-trend dip-buy, wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.

DAX — 25,372.74

The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is neutral.

The hourly buy remains intact, but the short-term charts are correcting. The daily chart has yet to establish a direction.

This is a potential dip-buy setup based on the hourly chart. Wait for short-term selling to ease.

FTSE 100 — 10,724.64

The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strong buys.

The daily chart has improved from neutral yesterday to a strong buy. Short-term alignment has weakened, however.

As a dip-buy candidate in line with the higher timeframes, wait for the 15-minute and 5-minute charts to improve.

CAC 40 — 7,844.64

The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The hourly rebound remains in place, but the short-term and daily charts point lower.

The daily trend favors selling rallies, but avoid rushing into a short while the hourly buy signal remains.

Nikkei 225 — 67,777.52

The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.

The index is rebounding in the short term, but moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart are aligned to the downside. The daily buy has also weakened since yesterday.

Do not rely on the 5-minute rebound alone. Watch for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.

Strength Ranking

Strong buys across all timeframes

• S&P 500
• Copper

Bullish across all timeframes

• Dow Jones

Strong buys on the hourly and daily charts

• FTSE 100

Clear buying from the short-term charts through the hourly chart

• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• GBP/JPY

The daily charts for the major dollar pairs remain bearish, while GBP/JPY is neutral on the daily chart. Keep the short-term strength separate from the daily direction.

Weakness Ranking

Overall signal: strong sell across all timeframes

• EUR/GBP

The 5-minute indicator is strongly bullish, so conflicting signals remain within the short-term analysis.

Strong sells on the hourly and daily charts

• CHF/JPY
• Silver

Hourly and daily charts point lower

• CAD/JPY

Strong sells from the short-term charts through the hourly chart

• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• WTI crude
• Natural gas

Their daily charts are bullish, so distinguish short-term selling from a daily-trend sell.

Trading Strategy

Prioritize these dip-buy candidates

The S&P 500 and copper are strong buys across all timeframes. The Dow is also bullish across all timeframes.

The FTSE 100 is a strong buy on both the hourly and daily charts. As a candidate, wait for the short-term correction to end and for buying to realign on the 15-minute chart and above.

Short-term buy candidates

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and GBP/JPY are strong buys from the short-term charts through the hourly chart.

Their daily charts are bearish or neutral. If trading the short-term rebound, treat these differently from instruments such as the S&P 500, where the buy signals extend through the daily chart.

BTC and gold also have strong hourly buy signals, but their daily charts are neutral or bearish.

Sell-the-rally candidates

CHF/JPY and silver are strong sells on both the hourly and daily charts. CAD/JPY also has bearish alignment on the higher timeframes.

EUR/GBP has an overall strong-sell signal across all timeframes, but take note of the conflicting 5-minute indicator.

USD/CHF, USD/CAD, WTI, and natural gas are strong sells from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. Their daily charts remain bullish, so define the timeframe for any short trade.

Wait for Directional Alignment

USD/JPY, the Nikkei, and the Nasdaq 100 have daily buy signals conflicting with strong hourly sells.

AUD/NZD also has a strong daily buy but a strong hourly sell. Do not carry forward yesterday’s bullish view without change; wait for the hourly chart to improve.

The hourly charts for gold futures and the CAC 40 are bullish, while their short-term and daily charts are bearish. Wait for the timeframes to align before deciding on a direction.

Key Points

The broad alignment in favor of dollar buying seen yesterday has broken down, and short-term rebounds have spread across the major dollar pairs. Daily sell signals remain, however, so distinguish short-term rebounds from daily trend reversals.

The S&P 500 and Dow are strong, while the hourly charts for the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei are weak. Rather than treating all indices alike, prioritize those with aligned signals.

Holding long positions in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD at the same time would concentrate exposure to a weaker dollar. Manage allocation so that several positions do not become an oversized bet on the same theme.

Data for the 5-minute and 15-minute charts of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/NZD, spot gold and silver, and BTC were unavailable. These instruments are analyzed primarily using the available hourly and daily signals.