Technical Analysis
30 September 2026
Market Overview
Today’s key themes are short-term rebounds in the euro and pound, Australian dollar weakness, Swiss franc weakness, falling European equities and strength in the Nikkei 225.
In FX, EUR/USD and GBP/USD have shifted to buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart. Their daily charts remain strong sells, however, indicating rebounds within broader daily downtrends.
By contrast, AUD/USD and EUR/GBP are strong sells across all timeframes. AUD/NZD is also showing sell signals on the hourly and daily charts, highlighting the Australian dollar’s relative weakness.
In commodities, gold is rebounding on the hourly chart, but remains a strong sell on the daily chart. Silver is showing strong sell signals across all timeframes, widening the performance gap between the two precious metals. WTI crude oil has begun a short-term rebound after falling to US$90.14.
Among equity indices, the Nikkei 225 is showing buy signals from the short-term charts through to the daily chart. By contrast, the DAX and CAC 40 are strong sells across all timeframes. The Dow Jones remains weak, while the Nasdaq 100 retains a daily buy signal but has mixed short-term signals.
Key Changes Since the Previous Update
The following figures compare with the levels in the previous update:
• The Nikkei 225 rose from 65,571.00 to 66,896.00, up around 2.0%.
• WTI crude oil fell from 92.23 to 90.14, down around 2.3%.
• The CAC 40 fell from 8,095.05 to 7,999.09, down around 1.2%.
• Gold futures rose from 4,177.97 to 4,218.00, up around 1.0%.
• XAU/USD rose from 4,145.91 to 4,185.63, up around 1.0%.
• BTC/USD fell from 84,219 to 83,611, down around 0.7%.
• The DAX fell from 25,514.06 to 25,361.98, down around 0.6%.
• AUD/NZD fell from 1.2371 to 1.2335, down around 0.3%.
The rebounds in the Nikkei 225 and gold stand out. Gold’s daily chart remains bearish, however, so its technical picture differs from the Nikkei’s, where buy signals now extend to the higher timeframes.
FX Market
EUR/USD 1.1355
The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The pair has shifted from strong sell signals across all timeframes to a short-term rebound. It is a potential buying-on-dips candidate in the short term, but remains a selling-on-rallies candidate from the daily-chart perspective. While the hourly buy signal remains in place, it is better not to rush into selling; wait for signs that the rebound is losing momentum.
GBP/USD 1.3273
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are strong buys, while the daily chart is a strong sell.
The short-term rebound is more pronounced than in EUR/USD. EUR/GBP is also a strong sell across all timeframes, confirming sterling’s relative strength.
Buying on dips is favoured in the short term, but a daily-chart reversal to buy has not yet been confirmed.
USD/JPY 157.08
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
The pair has rebounded in the short term, but the hourly moving averages signal a sell and the daily moving averages a strong sell. Higher-timeframe support for further gains is weak, so the short-term buy signals alone do not provide a strong basis for calling a medium-term uptrend.
It is preferable to wait for the hourly chart to establish a clearer direction.
USD/CHF 0.8337
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are neutral, while the daily chart is a strong buy.
Short-term momentum has slowed from the strong buy signals seen across all timeframes in the previous update. The daily uptrend remains intact, but buying on dips is better considered after the hourly chart confirms a return to buy signals.
AUD/USD 0.6968
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The pair remains below 0.7000, with downside signals aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart. It is one of the clearest weak performers in today’s FX market.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
NZD/USD 0.5649
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart is a strong sell, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
On the hourly chart, sell signals from the moving averages conflict with strong buy signals from the indicators. The downside signals are therefore less aligned than in AUD/USD, although the daily bias remains bearish.
If the hourly chart turns back to a sell, the pair could become a selling-on-rallies candidate.
Cross-Yen Pairs and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY 178.36
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The pair has shifted from strong sell signals across all timeframes to a short-term rebound. Short-term buying may be considered, but the daily trend remains lower. It is important to distinguish a continuing rebound from a medium-term trend reversal.
GBP/JPY 208.49
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are strong buys, while the daily chart is a strong sell.
This is the clearest short-term rebound among the cross-yen pairs. Buy signals in GBP/USD provide additional support, making GBP/JPY a potential buying-on-dips candidate in the short term. The daily chart still leaves room for a move lower on rallies.
CHF/JPY 188.42
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
A short-term rebound is underway, but an hourly uptrend has not been confirmed. The daily downtrend remains strong, so further improvement in the hourly chart is needed to support continued buying.
EUR/GBP 0.8555
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Sterling remains stronger than the euro. This is one of the clearest relative-currency trends in today’s market.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
AUD/JPY 109.45
The 5-minute and hourly charts are sells, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
AUD/JPY remains weak even as other cross-yen pairs rebound in the short term. This reflects underlying Australian dollar weakness, and selling on rallies remains preferable.
NZD/JPY 88.73
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The pair is rebounding in the short term, but the daily downtrend remains intact. If considering a short-term long, monitor whether the hourly buy signal holds.
CAD/JPY 110.75
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
A short-term rebound has begun, but a medium-term reversal is unconfirmed. Consider selling in line with the daily trend only after the short-term buying momentum fades.
AUD/NZD 1.2335
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are strong sells, and the daily chart is a sell.
The daily chart has shifted from a buy in the previous update to a sell. Signals are now aligned in favour of Australian dollar weakness against the New Zealand dollar.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
EUR/CHF 0.9467
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
Buying has resumed after the short-term correction in the previous update, bringing the hourly and daily trends back into alignment. This is the clearest buy candidate in today’s FX market.
The preferred strategy is buying on dips.
Commodities
Gold Futures 4,218.00
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
Gold has rebounded in price since the previous update, but short-term selling pressure has emerged. The hourly rebound conflicts with the daily downtrend.
For short-term buying, wait for the 15-minute chart to improve. For trades in line with the daily trend, look for the hourly rebound to lose momentum.
XAU/USD 4,185.63
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The hourly rebound signal is stronger than in gold futures. However, the daily chart remains bearish, so this is not yet a medium- or long-term buy reversal.
Silver Futures 61.180
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The price is slightly higher than in the previous update, but the technical signals remain bearish across the board. A price rebound alone is not enough to confirm a bottom; selling on rallies remains preferable.
XAG/USD 60.7940
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
While gold is rebounding on the hourly chart, silver has sell signals extending through the hourly timeframe. Silver is clearly the weaker of the two precious metals.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
WTI Crude Oil US$90.14
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a sell.
WTI has fallen around 2.3% since the previous update but is now rebounding in the short term. Signals point to buying interest near US$90, although the daily downtrend remains in place.
For short positions, wait for the short-term rebound to fade. For long positions, wait for confirmation that the hourly chart is improving.
Natural Gas 3.024
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are strong sells, while the daily chart is neutral.
The daily signal has deteriorated from a strong buy in the previous update to neutral. The short-term correction is continuing, and support from the higher-timeframe buy trend has weakened.
Selling on rallies is favoured.
BTC/USD 83,611
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
Hourly momentum has slowed from the strong buy signals across all timeframes in the previous update. However, the short-term and daily charts remain bullish.
BTC is a potential buying-on-dips candidate. An hourly return to buy signals would bring the timeframes into stronger alignment.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones 51,349.92
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are buys, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
A short-term rebound is underway, but the higher-timeframe downtrend remains clear. The preferred strategy is selling after the rebound.
S&P 500 7,670.84
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.
The hourly correction is continuing against the daily buy signal. Consider buying on dips only after the hourly sell signal has cleared.
Nasdaq 100 30,339.33
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a strong buy, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but short-term signals are mixed. If the 5-minute and hourly charts turn to buys, the index could become a buying-on-dips candidate.
DAX 25,361.98
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The DAX has shifted from strong buy signals on the short-term and hourly charts in the previous update to strong sells across all timeframes. The rebound failed to continue, and the daily chart has also turned lower.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
UK 100 10,661.72
The charts from 5 minutes through to hourly are strong sells, while the daily chart is a sell.
The daily chart has deteriorated from a buy in the previous update. Signals are now aligned to the downside from the short-term charts through to the daily chart, favouring selling on rallies.
CAC 40 7,999.09
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The index has fallen below 8,000 and remains clearly weak among European equities.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
Nikkei 225 66,896.00
The 5-minute chart is a buy, while the charts from 15 minutes through to daily are strong buys.
The index has risen around 2.0% since the previous update, and the hourly chart has improved to a strong buy. Buy signals are more closely aligned here than in any other equity index covered today.
The preferred strategy is buying on dips.
Strength Rankings
S Rank
• EUR/CHF
• Nikkei 225
A Rank
• GBP/USD, short-term through hourly
• GBP/JPY, short-term through hourly
• EUR/USD, 15-minute and hourly charts
• BTC/USD, short-term and daily charts
Awaiting Reversal Confirmation
• XAU/USD hourly chart
• Nasdaq 100 daily chart
• USD/CHF daily chart
Weakness Rankings
S Rank
• AUD/USD
• EUR/GBP
• Silver futures
• XAG/USD
• DAX
• CAC 40
A Rank
• AUD/NZD
• UK 100
• Natural gas, short-term through hourly
• AUD/JPY
• Dow Jones hourly and daily charts
Trading Strategy
Buying on Dips Favoured
• EUR/CHF
• Nikkei 225
Short-Term Buy Candidates
• GBP/USD
• EUR/USD
• GBP/JPY
• EUR/JPY
• NZD/JPY
Selling on Rallies Favoured
• AUD/USD
• EUR/GBP
• AUD/NZD
• AUD/JPY
• Silver futures
• XAG/USD
• DAX
• UK 100
• CAC 40
• Natural gas
Sell Candidates After a Rebound Fades
• Dow Jones
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• WTI crude oil
Wait for Buying to Resume
• BTC/USD
• Nasdaq 100
• S&P 500
• USD/CHF
Watch for Conflicting Timeframes
• USD/JPY
• NZD/USD
• Gold futures
• XAU/USD
Key Points
EUR/CHF and the Nikkei 225 have the strongest alignment of buy signals. AUD/USD, EUR/GBP, silver, the DAX and the CAC 40 have the clearest alignment of sell signals.
Cross-yen pairs have shifted from broad selling in the previous update to short-term rebounds. Strong daily sell signals remain, however, so these rebounds should not automatically be treated as medium- or long-term trend reversals.
The divergence between gold and silver is also clear. Gold is rebounding on the hourly chart, while silver is showing sell signals across all timeframes. For precious metals, trade direction should reflect the technical signals for each instrument individually.
