【Technical Analysis】25 August 2026
■ Summary
Today’s market is defined by AUD and NZD strength, rising European equities, weaker oil, and declines in U.S. technology stocks.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are all showing Strong Buy signals from the short-term charts through the daily chart. In contrast, AUD/NZD is Strong Sell across all timeframes. While the Australian dollar remains strong, the New Zealand dollar is even stronger.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are bearish on the short-term and hourly charts but remain Strong Buy on the daily chart. Both currencies retain their medium- to long-term uptrends, while short-term corrections continue. EUR/GBP is Strong Sell on the daily chart, indicating relative sterling strength.
In commodities, gold and silver retain their daily bullish trends, although the hourly charts are neutral. BTC also remains Strong Buy on the daily chart, while short-term selling pressure prevails. Meanwhile, WTI crude is Strong Sell from the short-term through the hourly chart, with its decline into the $81 range standing out.
In equity markets, the DAX and FTSE 100 are Strong Buy. The Dow is also Strong Buy on the hourly chart. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are clearly weak, with the Nasdaq 100 showing Strong Sell across all timeframes.
■ FX Market
EUR/USD 1.1663
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Sell, while the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily EUR-up/USD-down trend remains intact, but a correction continues from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. Short-term selling on rebounds is currently favored, while the daily trend still supports buying on dips.
It is preferable not to rush into long positions until the hourly chart improves from Sell to Neutral or Buy.
GBP/USD 1.3635
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Sell, while the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Like EUR/USD, cable is undergoing a short-term correction within its daily uptrend. However, EUR/GBP is Strong Sell on the daily chart, indicating that sterling remains relatively stronger over the medium to long term.
The current setup favors selling on short-term rebounds, while the daily chart presents a buy-on-dips opportunity.
USD/JPY 159.27
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, while the hourly and daily charts are Buy.
Short-term dollar selling and yen buying are driving a correction, but the hourly and daily charts maintain an upward bias in USD/JPY. With short- and medium-term signals moving in opposite directions around the 159 level, the pair is prone to unstable price action.
The short-term bias favors selling on rebounds, but downside chasing should be approached cautiously given the hourly and daily Buy signals.
USD/CHF 0.8027
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Sell, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
USD/CHF remains dominated by dollar weakness and Swiss franc strength through the daily chart. Short-term signals are also beginning to align to the downside, making selling on rebounds the preferred approach.
AUD/USD 0.7156
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
AUD/USD is one of the strongest dollar pairs in the current market. Australian dollar buying and dollar selling are aligned from the short-term charts through the daily chart.
The basic strategy is to buy on dips, although sharp profit-taking remains a risk after a strong advance.
NZD/USD 0.5968
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
NZD/USD is also in a fully aligned uptrend. With AUD/NZD showing Strong Sell across all timeframes, NZD’s relative strength is even more pronounced than AUD’s.
Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy.
■ JPY Crosses
EUR/JPY 185.75
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, while the hourly chart is Buy and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The pair is undergoing a short-term yen-buying correction, but the hourly and daily uptrends remain intact. Once short-term selling pressure subsides, it may become a buy-on-dips candidate in line with the daily trend.
GBP/JPY 217.16
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, while the hourly chart is Buy and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
GBP/JPY is also in a short-term correction, but its medium-term and daily uptrends remain intact. Sterling’s relative strength provides support.
Consider buying on dips once the short-term decline has stabilized and the 15-minute chart improves.
CHF/JPY 198.44
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Neutral, while the hourly chart is Strong Buy and the daily chart is Buy.
CHF/JPY is relatively firm among the yen crosses. With the hourly and daily charts aligned to the upside, it could become a buy-on-dips candidate once short-term direction becomes clearer.
AUD/JPY 113.98
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
AUD/JPY is one of the clearest uptrends in the FX market. Australian dollar strength and yen weakness are aligned from the short-term charts through the daily chart.
Buying on dips remains the preferred approach.
NZD/JPY 95.05
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
NZD/JPY is also exceptionally strong, like AUD/JPY. Given NZD’s relative strength, the pair remains one of the yen crosses most likely to sustain its advance.
The basic strategy is to buy on dips.
CAD/JPY 114.96
The 5-minute and hourly charts are Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Falling oil prices are weighing on the Canadian dollar, making CAD/JPY weak from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. The daily uptrend remains intact, but selling on short-term rebounds is currently favored.
EUR/GBP 0.8554
The 5-minute and hourly charts are Neutral, the 15-minute chart is Buy, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
A short-term euro rebound is underway, but the daily chart continues to show clear sterling strength. The medium- to long-term bias remains to sell on rebounds, while waiting for better short-term selling opportunities.
AUD/NZD 1.1992
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
NZD is outperforming AUD, creating one of the clearest relative-currency trends in the current market.
Selling on rebounds remains the preferred strategy.
EUR/CHF 0.9361
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Sell, while the daily chart is Buy.
Euro selling and Swiss franc buying dominate in the short term, while the daily EUR-uptrend remains intact. With timeframes in conflict, short-term selling on rebounds is favored, while daily-chart longs should wait for a short-term reversal.
■ Commodities
Gold $4,645.85
Gold Futures $4,701.44
The short-term charts are Strong Buy, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Gold maintains its medium- to long-term uptrend, although momentum has slowed on the hourly chart. Buying on dips remains the basic strategy, but waiting for a short-term pullback offers better risk management at elevated levels.
Silver 68.1670
The 5-minute chart is Strong Buy, the 15-minute chart is Buy, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Silver remains firm in the short term, but the hourly trend has lost momentum. Like gold, the daily direction remains bullish, but waiting for dips is preferable to chasing highs.
WTI Crude Oil $81.87
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Sell, while the daily chart is Neutral.
Oil is in a clear downtrend from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. Price action can become highly volatile when supply concerns ease, including on expectations of reduced Middle East tensions.
Selling on rebounds remains the preferred strategy.
Natural Gas 2.807
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Buy, the hourly chart is Buy, and the daily chart is Neutral.
The uptrend continues from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. The daily chart remains neutral, limiting the medium- to long-term directional view, but natural gas is a short-term buy-on-dips candidate.
BTC/USD $79,143
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
BTC remains in a strong daily uptrend but is undergoing a short-term correction around the $79,000 level. Rather than chasing short-term selling, it is preferable to wait for a short-term reversal and consider it as a daily-trend buy-on-dips opportunity.
■ Equity Markets
U.S. Equities
The Dow is Buy on the 15-minute chart, Strong Buy on the hourly chart, and Neutral on the daily chart, making it relatively firm among U.S. indices.
In contrast, the S&P 500 is Strong Sell from the short-term through the hourly chart and Sell on the daily chart. The Nasdaq 100 is Strong Sell across all timeframes, highlighting particularly strong selling pressure in technology stocks.
The performance gap between the Dow and technology shares is widening.
European Equities
The DAX is Strong Buy across all timeframes, making it the strongest major European index.
The FTSE 100 is Strong Buy from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart. The short-term chart is Neutral, but buying on dips remains favored.
The CAC 40 is Neutral across all timeframes. It lacks direction relative to the DAX and FTSE 100 and is currently difficult to trade aggressively.
Japanese Equities
The Nikkei Average is at 65,856.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Buy, while the daily chart is Strong Sell.
The Nikkei has rebounded sharply in the short term, but the daily chart remains in a clear downtrend. Short-term buying and medium- to long-term selling are in conflict, so profits should be taken relatively quickly when trading the short-term rebound.
■ Strength Ranking
S Rank
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- AUD/JPY
- NZD/JPY
- AUD/NZD — Sell
- DAX
- Nasdaq 100 — Sell
A Rank
- CHF/JPY
- USD/CHF — Daily chart
- Gold and Gold Futures — Daily chart
- Silver — Daily chart
- Natural Gas — Short-term
- FTSE 100
- S&P 500 — Sell
B Rank
- GBP/JPY — Daily and hourly charts
- EUR/JPY — Daily and hourly charts
- Dow — Hourly chart
- Nikkei Average — Short-term
■ Weakness Ranking
S Rank
- WTI Crude Oil
- Nasdaq 100
- S&P 500
- AUD/NZD
- USD/CHF — Daily chart
- CAD/JPY — Short-term
A Rank
- EUR/USD — Short-term
- GBP/USD — Short-term
- EUR/JPY — Short-term
- GBP/JPY — Short-term
- BTC — Short-term
- EUR/CHF — Short-term
■ Market Theme
The central themes are AUD and NZD strength, NZD outperformance, rising European equities, falling oil prices, and weaker U.S. technology stocks.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are Strong Buy across all timeframes. In addition, AUD/NZD is Strong Sell across all timeframes, confirming that NZD is even stronger than AUD.
Gold and silver maintain their medium- to long-term uptrends. Meanwhile, oil is Strong Sell from the short-term through the hourly chart, contributing to CAD/JPY weakness.
The DAX and FTSE 100 are strong, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are weak. Rather than moving in one direction, the market is showing clear divergence by asset and region.
■ Trading Strategy
Buy Bias
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- AUD/JPY
- NZD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
- DAX
- FTSE 100
- Natural Gas — Short-term
Buy-on-Dips Candidates
- EUR/USD — Daily chart
- GBP/USD — Daily chart
- EUR/JPY — Daily chart
- GBP/JPY — Daily chart
- Gold
- Silver
- BTC/USD — Daily chart
- Nikkei Average — Short-term
Sell-on-Rebounds Candidates
- AUD/NZD
- USD/CHF
- EUR/USD — Short-term
- GBP/USD — Short-term
- CAD/JPY — Short-term
- WTI Crude Oil
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq 100
- EUR/CHF — Short-term
■ Markets Requiring Caution
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are exceptionally strong, with buy signals aligned across all timeframes. However, avoid chasing prices after sharp gains; prioritize pullbacks and renewed upside confirmation.
BTC, gold, and silver remain bullish on the daily chart, but short-term charts indicate consolidation. The broader uptrends remain intact, but aggressive buying should be avoided until short-term selling pressure subsides.
The Nikkei shows short-term Buy signals but daily Strong Sell, while USD/JPY shows short-term Sell signals but hourly and daily Buy. Until short- and medium-term signals align, position sizes should remain restrained.
