Technical Analysis — May 8, 2026
■ Overview
The market is entering a very interesting phase.
The previous environment of:
“One-way broad risk-on momentum”
is beginning to transition into:
“A selective market”
This shift is extremely important.
Key characteristics now are:
- U.S. equities remain strong
- Gold and silver remain strong
- European equities are starting to weaken
- Crude oil is deteriorating
- USD/JPY continues to favor sell-on-rallies
In other words:
“Capital is concentrating into specific assets rather than lifting everything equally.”
■ Strongest Market Group
1) EUR/USD
Exceptionally strong.
Strong buy signals across all timeframes.
This remains one of the cleanest expressions of broad USD weakness.
2) Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has fully regained bullish momentum.
Supported by:
- expectations for lower rates
- broad USD weakness
Very strong structure overall.
3) Silver (XAG/USD)
Still among the strongest assets in the market.
There is some short-term noise developing, but the broader trend remains decisively bullish.
4) NASDAQ100
AI-led strength continues.
Dip-buying remains extremely aggressive.
Pullbacks are shallow.
5) Nikkei225
Unusually strong.
Foreign capital inflows into Japanese equities remain significant.
The market is also re-pricing the benefits of a weaker yen.
■ USD/JPY
This is extremely important.
Short-term rebounds are occurring.
However:
- hourly charts remain bearish
- daily charts remain bearish
Meaning:
“Sell-the-rally conditions still dominate.”
The fact that USD/JPY already dropped back into the low 156 area is technically significant.
■ Cross Yen Pairs
This is becoming a major inflection zone.
EUR/JPY
Short-term momentum is positive.
However:
- daily structure remains bearish.
GBP/JPY
Very similar structure.
AUD/JPY
Relatively stronger than other crosses.
Commodity currencies continue to outperform.
Most Stable Cross
NZD/JPY
Currently one of the cleanest structures overall.
Very stable trend behavior.
■ Crude Oil
This is critically important.
WTI is breaking down.
Intraday and hourly structures now show strong sell conditions.
The previous:
- inflation panic
- Middle East risk premium
is fading significantly.
The market is increasingly prioritizing:
“Monetary easing expectations over inflation fears.”
■ European Equities
This is one of the biggest changes in the current market.
DAX
Weakening.
CAC40
Considerably weaker.
FTSE
Even weaker.
This suggests:
“Capital is gradually rotating out of Europe.”
Meanwhile:
U.S. equities remain very strong.
This is a classic:
“U.S.-concentration market”
■ U.S. Equity Structure
NASDAQ
Still the strongest index.
S&P500
Very stable.
Dow Jones
Relatively weaker.
This confirms:
“Large-cap AI and growth leadership”
continues to dominate.
■ Current Market Structure
Strong Assets
- EUR/USD
- Gold
- Silver
- NASDAQ
- Nikkei
- BTC
Weak Assets
- Crude oil
- European equities
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
■ Key Risk Warning
The market is currently full of:
“Short-term rebounds inside broader trends.”
This is especially dangerous in:
- USD/JPY
- cross-yen pairs
- crude oil
Chasing temporary rallies can easily become a trap.
The broader macro trend still favors:
- USD weakness
- metals strength
- AI equity leadership
■ Cleanest Current Structures
Long Candidates
- EUR/USD
- XAU/USD
- XAG/USD
- NASDAQ100
- BTC
- NZD/JPY
Short Candidates
- USD/JPY
- Crude oil
- European equities (especially CAC40)
■ Final Conclusion
The market is increasingly concentrating capital into:
“AI equities + precious metals + USD weakness”
while capital is rotating away from:
“Crude oil + Europe”
This is becoming a very clear:
