−19,183 USD
Middle East × Tariffs × Intervention | Toward a Volatile Late February
📊 Weekly Performance Review
Period: February 16 – February 20
Result: −19,183 USD
■ What Really Happened This Week
Clear separation between “where we win” and “where we get chipped away”
The final result was negative.
However, upon closer review,
the strategy itself did not collapse.
Currencies functioned as expected.
The imbalance came from high-volatility assets.
In particular:
- Political headline-driven spikes
- Larger-than-expected intraday volatility
distorted the overall profit structure.
This week’s theme was not “misreading direction” —
it was amplitude.
■ Market Environment Breakdown
① Yen-related markets
Domestic data remained weak.
Rate hike expectations faded.
The yen stayed structurally weak and directionally cleaner.
Price action was relatively efficient and aligned with strategy.
This was a tradable zone.
② Dollar-related markets
The USD was influenced by:
- Interest rate dynamics
- Political decisions
- Geopolitical tension
- Institutional risk
Not a single theme —
but shifting narratives with every headline.
Less of a trend.
More of a swinging axis.
③ Commodities & Crypto
This was the center of volatility.
Court-related headlines triggered sharp moves in risk assets.
Rapid expansion of price ranges amplified P/L fluctuations.
This was a week that demanded
re-evaluation of position sizing discipline.
🔎 Individual Market Notes
💴 Yen crosses
Broadly biased toward yen weakness.
However, once key levels were approached, sharp reversals followed.
A structure where
“the more it extends, the more dangerous it becomes.”
💵 Dollar pairs
Some sessions moved with long-term yields.
Others reacted purely to political headlines.
Consistency was limited.
💶 European currencies
Driven more by U.S. catalysts than European fundamentals.
Limited independent leadership.
🔮 Focus for Next Week
Next week looks multi-layered:
1️⃣ Yen levels and intervention sensitivity
2️⃣ U.S. political and institutional themes
3️⃣ Middle East developments
4️⃣ European sentiment indicators
Rather than a single dominant trend,
we may see theme rotation by headline.
■ USD/JPY Dynamics
The further USD/JPY rises,
the more “suppression events” become priced in.
Rapid upside → heightened reversal risk.
Chasing one direction becomes structurally difficult.
■ EUR/USD
Short-term rebounds possible depending on European data,
but ultimately governed by relative U.S. yield strength.
Volatility likely elevated.
■ GBP/JPY
Monetary policy expectations weigh on the pair.
However, if pricing becomes excessive, unwinds could be fast.
■ AUD/JPY
Australian factors provide some support.
Ultimately driven by yen-side headlines.
■ Lessons This Week
✔ FX remains comparatively readable
✔ News-driven high-volatility assets demand tight size control
✔ When key levels are in play, prioritize profit-taking
🎯 Strategic Redefinition
For next week:
- Make yen crosses the core focus
- Be selective with dollar pairs
- Reduce exposure to commodities & crypto, or limit to short-term trades
Prioritize not “calling direction,”
but designing a structure that avoids unnecessary erosion.
Late February is shaping up to be
less about conviction —
and more about survival architecture.
📜 Afterword | The Quality of Your Sleep Determines the Quality of Your Trading
Thank you again for reading this week’s FX report.
Recent sleep research and expert guidance repeatedly emphasize that
it is not “special talent,”
but the accumulation of small habits
that determines sleep quality.
The same applies directly to trading.
🛏 Routine Is a Signal to the Brain
Avoiding screens before bed.
Preparing in a fixed order.
Dimming the lights.
These actions signal to your brain:
“It’s time to rest.”
Trading works the same way.
Reviewing a checklist before entry.
Writing in your trading journal.
These are signals that say:
“I move by rules, not emotion.”
Habits are mechanisms that prevent the brain from running wild.
🌡 When the Environment Is Right, Unnecessary Fatigue Decreases
Room temperature, light, and sound affect sleep.
Trading environments affect results.
- Don’t overconsume news.
- Limit alerts to essentials.
- Avoid oversized positions.
Reducing noise naturally improves precision.
📝 Writing It Down Means Letting It Go
Studies suggest writing down tasks before bed helps people fall asleep faster.
By placing worries onto paper,
the brain feels safe enough to rest.
In trading,
simply writing down a losing streak or uncertainty
often restores calm.
As long as anxiety stays inside your head, it amplifies.
Once externalized, it becomes something you can observe objectively.
🔇 The Concept of Smoothing Noise
White noise smooths out small disruptive sounds.
Risk management smooths out small fluctuations in P/L.
Build a structure where one win or loss does not shake you.
That is your mental white noise.
Both sleep and trading are improved
not by dramatic hacks,
but by quiet, consistent adjustments.
Next week,
before chasing big profits,
first adjust your condition.
Sleep well.
Wait well.
That may be the shortest path
to long-term consistency.
See you next week. 🌙📈
