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💹 +17,926 USD – Fed Rate-Cut Odds at 90%, BoJ Turns Hawkish, Japan’s Fiscal Expansion

💹 +17,926 USD – Fed Rate-Cut Odds at 90%, BoJ Turns Hawkish, Japan’s Fiscal Expansion

A “Multi-Theme Market” Where NZD and Gold Take Center Stage**

Weekly Performance (Nov 24–28)

📊 +17,926 USD

This week’s FX market was defined by three major forces pulling in different directions—
the U.S., Japan, and Oceania—creating one of the most complex “twisted markets” of the year.

💹 Market Themes for the Week of Dec 1

Three Forces Fighting for Dominance**

🔵 United States – Rate-Cut Probability Rebounds to 90%

Rate-cut expectations, which had dropped to 30% the previous week,
surged back to above 90% after key Fed commentary.

→ U.S. yields declined
→ Dollar upside became heavy

🔴 Japan – BoJ Hawkish Shift Gains Momentum

The probability of a December rate hike rose to around 50%.
Governor Ueda’s speech will be the most important event for yen traders this week.

🟡 Japan’s Fiscal Policy – Massive Supplementary Budget & 11T JPY JGB Issuance

Fiscal expansion → More JGB supply → Long-term yield concerns
＝ A renewed yen-selling pressure in the medium term.

🧊 Liquidity – Holiday Season Means Fewer Market Participants

Thanksgiving → Black Friday → Early December
＝ thin liquidity × heavy news flow
A volatile yet directionless environment.

USD/JPY – Range-Bound as Opposing Forces Cancel Each Other Out

📌 Expected Range: 154.00 – 158.00

Bullish Factors

  • Fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration → yen selling pressure

  • Strong real-money dip buying

Bearish Factors

  • 90% Fed rate-cut expectations → dollar weakness

  • Hawkish BoJ shift → yen buying

➡ Yen-buying and yen-selling forces are equally strong — clear trend unlikely.

Strategy

  • Around 155: Buy dips

  • Upper 157s: Expect profit-taking and short-term selling

  • Intervention risk remains, but typically only creates dips rather than trend reversals.

EUR/USD – Expect Whipsaw Movements During U.S. Data Rush

📌 1.1450 – 1.1650

Key Events

  • ISM Manufacturing / Non-Manufacturing

  • ADP Employment

  • PCE Deflator

→ Back-to-back major releases during thin liquidity
→ High risk of sharp intraday swings

Strategy

  • Below 1.15: Buy dips

  • Near 1.1650: Take profit or light short

  • ECB signaling end of the easing cycle → EUR remains supported.

GBP/JPY – UK Fiscal Improvement Supports Upside

📌 205.00 – 210.00

OBR doubled the UK fiscal surplus outlook → positive for GBP.
Lower gilt yields supported broad GBP buying.

Strategy

  • 205: Buy dips

  • 210: Prioritize profit-taking

NZD (NZD/USD & NZD/JPY) – The Star of the Week

RBNZ removed “further cuts” from its statement and signaled:

“Keeping rates unchanged through 2026 is appropriate.”

→ Strong NZD buying across all pairs
→ The most theme-driven currency of the week

Strategy

  • Favor dip-buying against both USD and JPY.

📅 Key Events for Next Week (Dec 1–5)

⭐ Top Priority: U.S. PCE (Dec 5)

  • Headline: Slightly stronger

  • Core: Expected weaker
    → Could strengthen rate-cut expectations further

U.S.

  • ISM Manufacturing (Dec 1)

  • ADP Employment (Dec 3)

  • ISM Services (Dec 3)

  • Michigan Sentiment (Dec 5)

Japan

  • BoJ Gov. Ueda speech

  • Capex data

  • 10Y & 30Y JGB auctions

Australia

  • Q3 GDP

🧭 Summary – A Week Full of Catalysts but Lacking Direction

🔵 USD/JPY faces opposite forces:

  • Fed cuts → yen strength

  • Japan fiscal → yen weakness

  • BoJ hawkish → yen strength

  • JGB issuance → yen weakness

➡ Classic range-bound setup.

🔴 Relatively strong currencies:

  • EUR

  • GBP

  • AUD

  • NZD

  • ZAR

🟡 Gold – Structural buying pressure continues

→ Best treated as a “buy on dips” market

📜 Afterword –

“How to Recover from a Cold” and “How to Recover from Trading Losses”**

Thank you for reading this week’s FX Weekly Report.

There’s been a lot of talk lately about “how to recover from a cold quickly.”
Vitamin C, zinc, probiotics—they help, but ultimately:

The real cure is simple:
“Rest. Hydrate. Don’t rush.”

It’s the same in trading.

Trying to recover a loss by force never changes the market.
Often, the fastest way to recover is:

Step back. Rest. Rebuild your rhythm.

💧 Liquidity = Water

Risk Management = Rest

Just like dehydration weakens the immune system,
overloading your positions dries up liquidity in your account.
Sometimes, the bravest decision is:

“Stay flat and preserve liquidity.”

Watching the market too much is like sleep deprivation—
it destroys the trader’s immune system.
Step away, breathe, and charts will look different.

🍋 Those Who Respect the Basics Recover the Fastest

Whether it’s a cold or a drawdown:

  • Don’t rush

  • Keep reserves

  • Adjust slowly

  • Don’t push yourself

These basics outperform any miracle cure.

🩺 Conclusion –

“Slow Down to Recover Faster”**

Both colds and drawdowns last longer when you try to fix them too quickly.

Rest your body. Rest your charts.
That’s the fastest route to catching the next wave.

Next week, take a breath,
sip something warm,
and watch the market with relaxed shoulders.

Those who don’t rush recover the fastest. ☕📉➡📈

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