📉 -11,031 USD | A Volatile Week Caught Between Intervention Fears and Renewed Yen Selling

📉 -11,031 USD | A Volatile Week Caught Between Intervention Fears and Renewed Yen Selling

🧾 Weekly Trading Performance (Nov 17–21)
Total P/L: -11,031 USD
With no clear directional bias, the week was marked by sharp back-and-forth flows between dollar buying and yen selling, creating a highly volatile and difficult trading environment.

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💹 Weekly FX Outlook (Week of Nov 24)

🏛 The Takaichi Administration Begins — A “Fiscal-Driven Yen Weakness” Trend Fully Takes Shape

With the launch of the Takaichi administration, Japan’s policy focus has clearly shifted from monetary to fiscal stimulus.

Most notably:

● Withdrawal of the primary balance surplus target

This immediately signals to markets:

→ “Economic stimulus will be prioritized”
→ “Fiscal expansion will persist long-term”
→ “Selling pressure on JGBs → rising yields → yen selling”

Overseas investors have already reinforced carry trades based on the view that “the yen still has more downside.”
Expectations for a December rate hike have also faded, leaving the yen with few supportive factors.

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💵 USD/JPY — Uptrend Intact (Projected Range: 155.00–162.00)

USD/JPY continues to trade with a strong upward bias.

U.S. rate-cut expectations have fallen sharply:
1 month ago: December cut probability in the 90% range → now: in the 30% range.
FOMC members have leaned toward caution, and hopes for early easing have virtually disappeared.

A decisive factor is:

● U.S. employment data (including October) postponed to Dec 16
→ Not reflected in the Dec 9–10 FOMC meeting
→ “If the data isn’t available, they won’t move” becomes the dominant view
→ Downside for the dollar is limited

Additionally, optimism around AI-related equities is returning, reviving risk-on = yen selling behavior.

● Risk Factors
Intervention fears rise sharply in the 157.80–158.00 zone.
However, given the structural nature of current yen weakness, any intervention is likely to create only temporary dips.

🔹 Strategy

• Buy on dips

• Post-intervention drops are prime buying opportunities

• A test of the upper 158s remains likely

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💶 EUR/USD — Heavy Tops (Projected Range: 1.1300–1.1650)

EUR/USD continues to show sluggish rebounds amid persistently high U.S. yields.

Europe faces:

• Slowing inflation

• Increasing signs of economic deceleration

• An ECB stance that feels more like “no new catalysts” than “ending cuts”

Liquidity will thin sharply after the U.S. Thanksgiving period (from the 27th onward).
In low-volume markets, trends can accelerate violently once they start moving in one direction.

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🪙 GOLD (XAUUSD) — 4,064 USD, Bullish Momentum Strengthening

Gold is regaining upward momentum.
The 4,020–4,050 USD region is emerging as a new support zone.

Multiple factors support gold:

• Missing U.S. inflation data → unclear rate outlook

• Japan’s fiscal expansion → even with USD strength, gold is less likely to be sold

• AI-related equity recovery amid persistent geopolitical risks

A break above 4,080 USD opens the path toward 4,150 USD.

🔹 Strategy

• Buy dips at 4,030–4,060

• Break above 4,080 → acceleration higher

• Profit-taking around 4,150

• Below 4,000 → shift to neutral stance

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🧭 Final Summary — The Yen Market’s “Main Driver” Has Shifted from Monetary to Fiscal Policy

With the arrival of the Takaichi administration, Japan’s yen market has entered a new phase.

The era when monetary policy alone dictated FX direction is over.
Now, fiscal policy has become the dominant force behind yen weakness.

Going forward, the key themes to watch are:

1. Scale of Japan’s fiscal expansion and JGB market reaction

2. Restart of U.S. economic data and the direction of U.S. yields

3. Intervention risks and the durability of their impact

The yen-weakening trend remains intact, but sharp swings are likely during overheated phases.
A disciplined approach—buying dips and treating intervention-induced drops as opportunities—will remain an effective strategy.

The Way We Recover Is the Same

This week’s lesson comes from healthcare.
Just as there’s no “magic cure” for a cold, there’s no “one-shot victory” in the market.
What works isn’t flashy tricks—it’s mastering the basics.

Rest = Preservation
Instead of forcing more positions, rest and sleep restore decision-making.
For both the body and the trading account, avoiding unnecessary damage is the fastest form of recovery.

Hydration = Liquidity
Frequent sips loosen congestion in the body—
and a healthy cash ratio prevents congestion in your positions.
If things get clogged, release exposure slowly, bit by bit.

Vitamin C & Zinc = Core Risk Management
Not dramatic, but deeply effective: cutting losses, adjusting size, scaling in/out.
Supplements don’t beat daily nutrition; shortcuts don’t beat daily discipline.

Nasal Rinse = Chart Cleansing
When your perception gets clogged with data and noise, clear it through weekly review, removing unnecessary lines, and rebuilding your market environment.

Honey = Soothing the Mind
A spoonful of sweetness eases a sore throat.
In trading, small wins, a short walk, or slow breathing soften excessive risk cravings.

OTC Medicine = Situation-Specific Tactics
Cough medicine for a cough, nasal spray for a nose.
Likewise in trading: hedge when needed, stagger timing, block out news—apply the right tool to the right symptom.

There’s no way to “cure a cold in 24 hours,”
and there’s no way to recover losses overnight.
What we can do is stack the behaviors that accelerate recovery.

Next week volatility may spike due to key events.
Just follow four simple rules:

1. Don’t trade when sleep-deprived

2. Maintain liquidity—preserve margin

3. Recheck your basic setups

4. Cut losses quickly and keep them small

Take care of both your health and your account.
Don’t let either one get worse.
Wishing you a smooth recovery—and good fortune in the battles ahead.