+47,316 USD Weekly Report
Theme: “Dollar Weakness Meets Yen Weakness as Fed Rate Cut Seen as Certain — A Week Where Monetary Easing and Fiscal Expansion Intertwine”
💰 Weekly Trading Results (October 20–24, 2025)
Total Profit: +47,316 USD
Theme: Fed rate cut expectations trigger simultaneous dollar and yen weakness, as monetary easing and fiscal expansion collide.
🇯🇵 Political Stability Spurs Yen Selling — “The Second Act of the Takaichi Trade”
This week’s market was driven by political stability and speculative yen selling.
With the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party finalizing a coalition agreement, and Sanae Takaichi’s appointment as Prime Minister confirmed, investors began to price in the birth of a “pro-growth administration.”
In her inaugural speech, PM Takaichi emphasized:
“Balancing price stability and economic recovery will be our top priority.”
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katayama stated that “fiscal discipline will shift its focus from the primary balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio,” signaling a clear shift toward fiscal expansion.
As a result, USD/JPY surged to the upper 152 range, briefly testing the 153 mark.
The so-called “Takaichi Trade” reignited short-term yen selling, though intermittent profit-taking and intervention caution limited the rise.
🇺🇸 Softer CPI Reinforces Fed Easing Scenario — Rate Cut Now Fully Priced In
The U.S. September CPI, released on October 24, came in below expectations:
| Indicator | Result | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | +3.0% | +3.1% | +3.2% |
| Headline CPI (MoM) | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
The data confirmed slowing inflation, accelerating market expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Yields fell, equities rallied, and the “easing triple” — lower rates, higher stocks, and a weaker dollar — reemerged.
Bloomberg Economics commented that the report
“virtually guarantees a 0.25-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC.”
U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, while the S&P 500 advanced.
Although the dollar initially weakened across the board, partial buying later returned, leaving the market in a rare state of coexisting dollar and yen weakness.
🌍 Key Events Ahead — Monetary Easing Meets Trade Diplomacy
| Date | Event | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28–29 | FOMC Meeting | 0.25% rate cut & potential QT pause |
| Oct 28 | Japan–U.S. Summit | Currency remarks, defense, tariffs |
| Oct 29–30 | BOJ Meeting | Rate hike seen unlikely |
| Oct 30 | ECB Meeting / U.S.–China APEC Summit | Policy tone & trade dialogue |
| Oct 31 | Japan CPI / Euro HICP / U.S. PCE | Final inflation check |
A dense lineup of policy and diplomatic events points to high volatility in the coming week.
💱 Currency Outlook
💴 USD/JPY: 152–155 — Between Yen Selling Hopes and Intervention Fears
Fiscal optimism under the Takaichi administration supports yen selling,
but softer U.S. CPI caps dollar strength.
Expect two-way trade within a broad range.
Trading Range Strategy:
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Buy Zone: 150.5–151.5
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Profit Target: 152.8–153.5
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Caution Zone: Around 155 (intervention risk)
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Support: Upper 149s
💶 EUR/USD: 1.14–1.18 — HICP Takes the Lead over ECB Policy
While the ECB maintains a cautious tone, a weak HICP could fuel easing speculation.
A sell-on-rally range near 1.17 remains intact within a softer dollar backdrop.
Strategy Points:
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Sell on Rally: 1.176–1.180
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Buy on Dip: 1.145–1.155
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Short-term Breakout: 1.185 possible but unsustainable
🪙 GOLD (XAU/USD): $4,111 — A Barometer of the Easing Cycle
Gold stays firm as lower CPI strengthens easing bets.
Falling real yields support renewed long positioning.
Expected Range: $4,050–$4,280 (extended: $4,350–$4,420)
Strategy:
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Buy Dips: $4,080–$4,120
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Take Profit: $4,200–$4,280
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Stop Loss: Watch for $4,350+ overshoot
As the symbol of easing sentiment, gold continues to attract hedging and risk-diversification flows.
🧭 Summary — A Dual Theme of Easing and Fiscal Expansion
The Fed’s imminent rate cut and Japan’s pro-growth fiscal policy define the week.
The market sees an unusual coexistence of dollar weakness and yen weakness,
while gold holds firm above $4,100 as the flagship trade of the easing cycle.
📜 Afterword — “When You Clear the Air, You Clear Your Mind”
Thank you for reading this week’s FX Weekly Report.
This week’s side topic, “8 Ways to Improve the Air Quality in Your Workspace,” might seem unrelated to trading —
but in reality, air quality directly affects focus, stress resistance, and decision-making precision,
making it a critical environmental factor for traders.
🌬 When the Environment Is Unstable, So Is Your Market Judgment
Poor ventilation and high humidity can cause mild oxygen deprivation, slowing mental response time —
which translates into hesitation or delay in trade execution, ultimately impacting results.
💡 Three Tips for an Optimal Trading Environment
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Circulate Air: Open windows for 10 minutes daily, or use HEPA filters on bad-air days.
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Balance Humidity: Keep it between 40–60%; dryness reduces focus, while excess moisture harms electronics.
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Add Nature: Small plants like Sansevieria or Pothos create psychological calm.
🍃 “Clean air creates a clear mind.”
Trading is an emotional sport — shallow breathing leads to impatience and poor decisions.
A clean environment is truly the infrastructure of calmness.
As the week ends, take a moment not only to analyze your charts but also to refresh your workspace air and light.
Next week’s clarity begins with today’s deep breath.
