💹 +167,030 USD｜Yen Weakness Reignited — A New Market Phase Under the Takaichi Administration
🧾 Weekly Trading Summary (Sep 29 – Oct 3)
This week’s strong performance in gold and the resilience of the Oceanian currencies lifted total profit to +167,030 USD.
Despite a risk-off environment, steady risk management led to a solid positive close.
🏛 Political and Monetary Turning Point
On October 4, Sanae Takaichi was elected as the new LDP president.
Her clear stance on expansionary fiscal policy and continued monetary easing suggests that markets will likely respond with higher stocks and a weaker yen early next week.
However, speculation over additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remains, meaning the yen’s trend is more likely to evolve into a volatile upward (weaker yen) move rather than a one-way depreciation.
💱 Currency Outlook & Strategy (Week of Oct 6)
| Pair | Market View & Strategy |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Yen weakness expectations under the Takaichi government offset by dollar selling due to the U.S. government shutdown. Buy on dips around 146; sell into rallies near 150. |
| EUR/USD | Supported by expectations that the ECB will refrain from rate cuts. Buy near 1.17 and take profit around 1.19. |
| GBP/JPY | Supported by the BOE’s continued hawkish stance. Buy on dips around 197; consider taking profit before 200. |
| CAD/JPY | Canada’s employment report will be key. Weak data may trigger a short-term pullback, but 104 remains a buying zone. |
| AUD/JPY | RBA’s inflation surprise reduces the odds of rate cuts. Buy around 96; take profit around the mid-98 range. |
🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD)
- Current Price: 3,886 USD
- Expected Range: 3,840–3,950 USD (breakout could test 4,000 USD)
Gold remains firm, supported by dollar weakness and falling real yields amid the U.S. government shutdown.
Strategy:
- Build long positions between 3,850–3,870 USD
- Take partial profits near 3,950–4,000 USD
- With risk aversion, inflation hedging, and portfolio diversification all aligned, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.
📅 Key Events This Week
| Date | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 (Mon) | Japan | Takaichi Cabinet inaugurated; BOJ branch managers’ meeting | ★★★ |
| Oct 8 (Wed) | New Zealand | RBNZ policy rate decision (expected: -0.50%) | ★★★ |
| Oct 8 (Wed) | U.S. | FOMC minutes (September) | ★★★ |
| Oct 10 (Fri) | Canada | Employment report (September) | ★★★ |
| Oct 10 (Fri) | U.S. | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim.) | ★★★ |
🔻 Summary & Strategic Outlook
- Takaichi administration: triggers initial yen weakness
- U.S. government shutdown: weighs on the dollar and supports gold
- The FX landscape now combines yen selling with limited dollar upside
Medium term, upside potential remains for gold, the euro, and the Australian dollar, while the dollar enters a correction phase.
Keep positions light and prioritize awareness of timing risks from key data and policy comments.
📜 Afterword | How to Use AI Wisely — The Power of Judgment
Thank you for reading this week’s FX Weekly Report.
The rise of AI tools such as ChatGPT has dramatically accelerated how we access information — from health tips to investment insights — in mere seconds.
Yet speed and convenience alone do not guarantee accuracy.
AI’s strength lies in organizing vast information and providing a foundation for human insight.
However, not all data it generates is accurate or up-to-date — and at times, it may confidently produce incorrect answers.
This is equally true in FX and market analysis.
While AI can support decision-making, the final judgment must always rest with you.
The key is not to rely on AI, but to master it — that’s the skill every modern trader must develop.
🧭 In the Age of Information, Judgment Is Your Edge
Markets move on data and headlines, but interpretation remains a uniquely human task.
Never take AI’s output at face value — always test it against your own experience, reasoning, and intuition.
That mindset forms the true foundation of consistent, disciplined trading.
As we head into the next week, let’s continue to use AI intelligently — calmly, flexibly, and with independent thought.
In a world that values speed, taking time to think remains your greatest competitive advantage.
See you in next week’s report.
