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๐Ÿ“ˆ +20,142 USD | September FOMC Rate Cut Seen as Certain

 

๐Ÿ“ˆ +20,142 USD | September FOMC Rate Cut Seen as Certain

Trading Performance Report (Sep 1โ€“5, 2025)
Weekly P/L: +20,142 USD

๐Ÿ”Ž Weekly Review

  • Gold: Continued to rise without any pullbacks โ†’ stayed out.
  • USD Selling: Shifted to selling the U.S. dollar, securing profits in AUD and crude oil.
  • Post-NFP Dollar Drop: Missed locking in about $30k in unrealized gains.
    ๐Ÿ‘‰ Lesson: Need to enforce โ€œend-of-week position clearingโ€ to improve profit-taking accuracy.

๐ŸŒ Macro Environment

  • U.S.: Labor market data (JOLTs, ADP, NFP) all came in weak โ†’ a September FOMC rate cut is seen as certain. Odds of three cuts by year-end are above 70%.
  • Japan: Rumors of an early LDP leadership election added volatility to the yen. Early in the week yen selling dominated, but by the weekend it tracked the dollarโ€™s weakness.
  • Europe: French political risk weighed on the euro. ECB expected to hold policy steady at the Sep 11 meeting.
  • U.K.: Long-term yields climbed to their highest since 1998. Fiscal concerns pressured the pound, but the Finance Ministerโ€™s call for discipline helped ease the decline.

๐Ÿ’ฑ Strategy for Currencies & Gold (Week of Sep 8)

USD/JPY

  • Key events: U.S. CPI (Sep 11), PPI (Sep 10), Michigan Sentiment (Sep 12). In Japan, LDP leadership race.
  • Levels: Support 146.0โ€“146.5, resistance 149โ€“151.
  • Plan: Favor selling rallies at 147โ€“148. Weak CPI could drive a move toward 145; strong data could bring a 151 test.

EUR/USD

  • Key events: French politics, ECB meeting (Sep 11).
  • Levels: Support 1.1600, resistance 1.1740โ€“1.1800.
  • Plan: Buy around 1.1650โ€“1.1700. Above 1.18 โ†’ caution for profit-taking / selling.

GBP/JPY

  • Key events: Fiscal concerns remain. U.K. jobs, CPI, BOE policy decision ahead โ†’ possible position trimming.
  • Levels: Support 197โ€“197.5, resistance 200โ€“201.5.
  • Plan: Buy dips near 198 โ†’ take profit around 200. Fiscal risk makes shorting rebounds also valid.

GOLD (XAU/USD)

  • Current Price: 3586
  • Tone: Supported by dollar weakness + lower yields.
  • Levels: Support 3550 โ†’ 3520 โ†’ 3485; resistance 3600 โ†’ 3625 โ†’ 3650.
  • Plan: Buy dips 3550โ€“3520. Stop-loss below 3485. Targets 3600 โ†’ 3625 โ†’ 3650. Zone 3485โ€“3450 = reload area for core longs.

๐Ÿ“Œ Strategy Summary

  • USD/JPY: Sell rallies at 147โ€“148; below 146 = further downside risk.
  • EUR/USD: Buy in the 1.16s; above 1.18 = profit-taking zone.
  • GBP/JPY: Buy near 198 โ†’ take profit at 200. Fiscal risks cap upside.
  • Gold: Maintain bullish view. 3485โ€“3450 = medium/long-term accumulation zone.

๐Ÿ“œ Afterword | โ€œFor Both Fitness and Trading, Sustainable Habits Matter Mostโ€

Thank you for reading this weekโ€™s FX Weekly Report.

I recently read an article on how to incorporate exercise into a busy lifestyle. The key idea was โ€œdonโ€™t overdo itโ€”make it sustainable.โ€ Short HIIT workouts, walking or playing ball games with family, or turning commuting into cycling or walkingโ€”these everyday adjustments support long-term health.

Trading is the same. Rather than sitting in front of screens for endless hours, itโ€™s crucial to find a rhythm and strategy that suit you and are sustainable. Even when targeting short-term opportunities, integrating money management and scheduled breaks helps reduce stress and build consistent results over time.

In both health and trading, the secret lies in โ€œsustainable habits.โ€
Letโ€™s face the markets next week with a balanced mind and body.

See you next week!

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