💥 Will a Fed Rate Cut Trigger a Bitcoin Explosion? Two Scenarios Diverge at the $97,000 Line
✅ Trading Results (April 28 – May 2, 2025)
Weekly P/L: -$61,083
A week swayed by a directionless market.
🌐 Market Overview
🏦 Japan: Yen Weakness Becomes Clearer
The Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged but revised down its growth and inflation outlook.
The timeline to reach the 2% inflation target was delayed, reinforcing the dovish stance and accelerating yen selling.
🇺🇸 United States: Shadow of Stagflation
Q1 GDP turned negative, reigniting concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
The nonfarm payrolls also missed expectations, triggering temporary dollar selling.
💱 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
While attempting to stabilize, it remains volatile due to erratic statements from the Trump administration and reactions to U.S. data.
🌍 Europe & the UK: Growing Rate Cut Expectations
Clear signs of easing inflation are fueling expectations for monetary easing later this year.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Strong dip buying continues around the $97,000 mark.
If the “risk-off + rate cut expectations” narrative holds, a breakout above resistance may be imminent.
📊 Trade Review
USD/JPY:
Selling into strength around the 144 range paid off (+26 pips).
Stayed in a tight and sensitive range ahead of FOMC and jobs data.
GBP/USD:
Long position failed, ignoring resistance above 1.34 resulted in a -45 pips loss.
XAU/USD (Gold):
Long at $3,305 was stopped out (-$37.19).
Confusion around interest rate outlook made this a tough market.
GBP/JPY:
Exited long at breakeven despite yen weakness. Pre-data volatility caused whipsaws.
🧭 Outlook for the Week of May 5
USD/JPY:
The key lies in FOMC and Powell’s comments.
Expect volatility over timing and the number of potential rate cuts (up to four).
Also watch for U.S. bond auctions and the Treasury’s FX report.
EUR/USD:
The European Commission is expected to propose restarting trade talks.
Progress could provide upside; delays could lead to ongoing weakness.
GBP/JPY:
The BOE meeting on May 8 is expected to result in a 0.25% rate cut.
Beware of post-event reversal after all news is priced in.
CAD/JPY:
Canada’s jobs data is crucial.
A weak report could spark speculation of a 0.5% BoC rate cut.
AUD/JPY:
Direction will depend on weekend general election results.
U.S.-China trade negotiations also remain a key risk-on/off trigger.
ZAR/JPY:
Focus on VAT reforms and credibility of the new budget.
BRICS cooperation and fiscal concerns will also sway sentiment.
📅 Economic Calendar (JST)
| Date | Key Events |
|---|---|
| May 6–7 | FOMC Meeting, Powell Press Conference |
| May 8 | BOE Rate Decision, New Zealand Fiscal Report |
| May 9 | Canadian Jobs Report, Post-Election Reaction in Australia |
📝 Summary
- USD/JPY: U.S.-event-heavy week ahead. Direction unclear — suitable for short-term scalping.
- EUR/USD: Rebound possible if trade talks progress, but underlying tone remains weak.
- GBP/JPY: Watch for reversal as a rate cut is already priced in.
- CAD/JPY: Mixed signals from data and diplomacy could lead to instability.
- AUD/JPY: Possible turbulence depending on election results and China relations.
- ZAR/JPY: Limited upside unless fiscal reforms are credible.
💬 Afterword – Stop the Wrinkles Before They Deepen, Just Like Charts
This week, the market wavered — Trump’s surprise call to reintroduce a 10% tariff sparked risk-off sentiment… only for equities to quietly rebound.
USD/JPY turned into a battleground between the “Tariffs = yen strength” crowd and the “America is strong = buy the dollar” camp.
With both charts and wrinkles, waiting too long can be fatal.
💡 8 Wrinkle Prevention Strategies — for Your Face and the Market
📌 1. Sunscreen = Stop Loss
Even the best-looking trade can get scorched by “UV rays” (unexpected risks).
Protect your positions (and skin) with SPF50-level stop losses.
📌 2. Retinoids = Counter-Trend Adjustments
Retinoids reverse your skin’s downtrend — just like the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line on your chart.
For your skin: tretinoin. For your chart: key levels.
📌 3. Moisturizer = Capital Management
A dry account and dry skin both crack under pressure.
Avoid over-leverage like you’d avoid dehydration.
Ample liquidity = radiant complexion.
📌 4. Hydration = Chart Check Frequency
If you listen when someone says “drink water,” you’ll also know when to buy the dip.
Dehydration = lack of info = panic buying = stop-out.
Keep sipping news and liquidity.
📌 5. Nutrition = Fundamentals
A vitamin-rich diet is like a fundamentally sound trade.
“Vibes-based buying” is like living off junk food — the result is the same: wrinkles and drawdowns.
📌 6. Sleeping Position = Trading Posture
Side-sleeping leads to wrinkles, just like unbalanced positions wrinkle your account.
Balance risk/reward, exposure, and your sleep schedule.
📌 7. Smoking = Meaningless Entries
Just as smoking accelerates aging, meaningless trades quietly age your capital.
Watch out for short-term gambling addiction.
📌 8. Unconscious Habits = Trading Habits
Unconscious frowns cause facial wrinkles. Unconscious high buying leads to stop-out pain.
Know your habits. Pattern recognition is a shared skill between skincare and trading.
🎯 In Summary: Resilient Traders Have Resilient Skin
“Whether it’s your skin or your charts, you can always turn things around by switching timeframes.”
This week was rough, but let’s treat our trades and our skin gently — and bounce back with clarity next week.
Even if tariff risk emerges:
✅ Stay calm and process the info rationally
✅ Don’t jump in on reflex
✅ Keep your account (and skin) hydrated
To trade beautifully — that’s the true trader’s path.
