Weekly Total: +32,077 USD — Is This the Start of a Trend Reversal? A Break Below 142.00 in USD/JPY Could Change Everything | Weekly Strategy & Key Events
USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Outlook: The pair is in a search-for-direction phase driven by trade talks and inflation indicators.
📌 Key Watchpoints:
- Japan–US Finance Ministers’ Meeting (Kato × Bessent) → Risk of yen appreciation pressure becoming explicit.
- Fed Beige Book / FOMC Member Speeches → Be cautious of the gap between continued inflation pressure and rate cut expectations.
- Tokyo CPI (April 25) → If rate hike expectations for the BOJ rise, it could trigger renewed yen buying.
📈 Strategy View:
- Volatile environment driven by policy headlines. Expect a wide range between 142.00–144.50.
- Avoid fading algorithm-driven spikes from headline shocks during the finance minister meeting.
EUR/USD (Euro / US Dollar)
Outlook: Concerns over weakening eurozone sentiment are capping gains; sellers remain in control on rallies.
📌 Key Watchpoints:
- Eurozone Flash PMIs → Weak data may lead to a break below 1.1200. Key for confirming ECB stance.
- Progress (or lack thereof) in Trump tariff-related trade talks.
- Lack of clear guidance from the ECB adds uncertainty.
📉 Strategy View:
- A break of 1.1160–1.1180 could trigger acceleration to the downside.
- Stay cautious of Lagarde’s comments; downside bias remains.
GBP/JPY (British Pound / Japanese Yen)
Outlook: UK economic data and policy responses may increase volatility.
📌 Key Watchpoints:
- UK Flash PMIs / March Retail Sales → Surprise moves could lead to 100-pip swings.
- UK stance in US negotiations and evolving BOE rate cut expectations.
📈 Strategy View:
- Strong buying support with seasonal tailwinds. However, resistance remains around 1.3350+.
- Stay flexible and follow the data — don’t fight breakouts driven by economic releases.
CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Outlook: Uncertain policy direction and US tariff risks create a cautious tone.
📌 Key Watchpoints:
- BOC rate cut expectations and risk of US–Canada trade friction.
- Lack of domestic Canadian drivers makes the pair sensitive to external factors.
📉 Strategy View:
- Box range between 104.50–106.50 expected to hold.
- A renewed focus on US–Canada tensions could trigger a drop below 104.00.
AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Outlook: Risk-off tone and election headlines are key drivers.
📌 Key Watchpoints:
- Reaction to Chinese non-tariff retaliation.
- Australian federal election developments (May 3).
- Few domestic indicators; headlines from US–China matter more.
📉 Strategy View:
- Limited upside amid geopolitical and political uncertainties. Watch the 90.00–91.80 range.
- Swift reactions and tight stop strategies are essential for headline-driven volatility.
🗓️ Key Economic Events (JST)
| Date | Event | Affected Currencies |
|---|---|---|
| April 23 | US Beige Book / South Africa March CPI | USD, ZAR |
| April 24 | South Africa March PPI | ZAR |
| April 25 | Tokyo CPI (April) | JPY |
| Ongoing | Japan–US Finance Minister Talks, FOMC Speeches, Australia Election Headlines, South African Politics | All Majors |
✅ Weekly Summary
| Currency Pair | Strategic Focus |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Finance minister meeting risk → Follow headlines; Tokyo CPI could revive yen strength. |
| EUR/USD | PMI weakness may break 1.1200. Watch ECB tone. |
| GBP/JPY | Data-driven volatility expected; seasonal buying interest strong. |
| CAD/JPY | Trapped between BOC uncertainty and tariffs; range trading preferred. |
| AUD/JPY | Election and US–China headlines dictate direction; stay alert for sudden moves. |
| ZAR/JPY | Political and inflation pressure weighs; prefer selling rallies. |
